The exchange of blows between Israel and Hezbollah has increased, raising concerns that small-scale clashes could escalate into a full-blown conflict.
Conflict has erupted along the Lebanon-Israel border in parallel with the war in the Gaza Strip. Over the past six weeks, Israeli forces and the Lebanese Hezbollah group have exchanged daily attacks. Most of the raids have been within 6-8 km of the border.
However, the scope and intensity of the fighting between the two sides is increasing. On November 18, Israeli aircraft attacked an aluminum plant in the Lebanese town of Nabatieh, more than 19 km from the border, far beyond the usual range.
Both sides have also begun to use more lethal weapons. Israel now regularly sends fighter jets to attack Hezbollah targets, while the Lebanese militant group deploys drones and fires heavier missiles.
Hezbollah claimed on November 18 to have shot down an Israeli drone, a claim Tel Aviv denied. On the same day, Israel attacked what it described as a sophisticated surface-to-air missile system belonging to the militant group.
Israeli officials warned that “Lebanese citizens will pay the price for Hezbollah’s recklessness in defending Hamas,” Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), said last week. “The IDF has a plan of action to change the security situation in the north.”
Israeli artillery shells targets on the outskirts of Odaisseh, southern Lebanon on November 17. Photo: AFP
In the early weeks of the conflict, Israel bombarded only at night, said Adiba Fanash, 65, one of a dozen residents still in the Lebanese village of Dhaira, close to the border with Israel. “Now it’s from morning to night. The situation is escalating every day,” she said.
Although the current small clashes have not caused the major conflict that many people fear, observers say that each time the two sides violate the tacit agreement, it will push the situation to the brink of serious escalation.
The last major conflict between the two sides in 2006 killed more than 1,200 people in Lebanon and 165 in Israel, leaving areas in the line of fire in ruins. Both sides have warned that any full-scale conflict now would be far more devastating, and neither side has shown it wants that.
But as the back-and-forth escalates, the risk of one side miscalculating and causing the situation to spiral out of control grows, said Andrea Tenenti, a spokeswoman for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, a peacekeeping force that monitors the country's border.
“Whatever either side does, the other side could see it as going too far and leading to a bigger war,” Mr. Tenenti said.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on November 11 that the group was stepping up its activities on the Lebanon-Israel border. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned earlier this week of consequences if Hezbollah expanded its range of attacks. "This is playing with fire and our response will be much stronger. They should not try to challenge us, because we have only used a little of our power," he said.
Israel has long considered Hezbollah the biggest threat on its borders. When asked about Israel's red lines, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant once stated that "if you hear that we attacked Beirut (the Lebanese capital), you will understand that Nasrallah crossed the red line."
Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group, now controls most of Lebanon's Shiite Muslim-majority areas, including parts of the capital Beirut.
Location of Israel and Lebanon. Graphic: AFP
In the coastal city of Tyre, many fear the violence will soon spread to the rest of Lebanon. The past 17 years have brought the southern city its longest period of peace in five decades and a period of rapid development.
Fears of conflict have left bars, hotels and restaurants empty. Demand for fish from local fishermen has also plummeted. "We want peace. We don't want war," said local fisherman Sami Rizk.
Whether war could break out remains an open question. However, observers are concerned about the spread of tensions.
“I am sure tensions will spread, but I am not sure if it will lead to a full-blown conflict that no one wants,” said Mahanad Hage Ali, a research fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon.
Intense behind-the-scenes negotiations are underway to prevent a repeat of the 2006 conflict, according to Arab and Western diplomats, with their attention focused on Hezbollah’s calculations and the statements of its leader Nasrallah.
In two speeches since the Gaza conflict erupted, Nasrallah has indicated that Hezbollah sees its role as diverting Israel's focus to ease pressure on Hamas, the group's ally in Gaza, rather than all-out war.
Despite being an anti-government militant group, Hezbollah enjoys support from many Lebanese. It is unclear whether Hezbollah can maintain this support if it drags the country into a costly conflict, when Lebanon is already gripped by political deadlock and economic collapse.
Lebanese are also concerned about Israel’s intentions and the prospect of it trying to eliminate the presence of armed groups along its northern border. Israel invaded Lebanon twice and occupied the country for 22 years from 1978 to 2000.
Most Lebanese believe Israel wants to take over their country again. “They want our land, our gas and our water,” said Samir Hussein, an engineer who lives in Tyre.
Israel's dire warnings and the prospect of Hamas losing in Gaza leave Hezbollah with a difficult choice, according to Mohammed Obeid, a political analyst close to the group. "Can you let the Israelis win in Gaza? If they do, Lebanon will be next," he said.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin described the current violence as “tit for tat.” “No one wants to see another conflict erupt on Israel’s northern border,” Austin said.
"Neither side wants to give in, I think the US is playing a strong role in trying to control the situation," said expert Hage Ali.
Thanh Tam (According to Washington Post, Reuters )
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