VN-Index recovers slightly, but profit-taking pressure is lurking.

VN-Index chart on March 25

The recovery of the large banking group at the end of the session promptly "saved" the market, but improved liquidity and foreign investors' net selling of more than VND400 billion raised the question: Is this a sign of a sustainable accumulation period, or just the "calm before the storm"?

The trading session started with a positive signal when VN-Index jumped more than 5 points right from the beginning of the session, continuing the strong increase of the previous session. According to a report from BOS Securities JSC, the main driving force came from the trio of Vingroup stocks (VIC, VHM, VRE) and the rubber group such as DPR, GVR, PHR, TRC. Notably, VIC and VHM recorded impressive increases in the morning session, while DPR even hit the ceiling.

Vietcombank Securities Company Limited (VCBS) also agreed that good buying pressure has strengthened the uptrend, with active buying liquidity increasing compared to the previous session.

However, the joy did not last long. By mid-session, profit-taking pressure began to increase, especially in blue-chip stocks such as FPT, TCB, VCB and VPB. BOS recorded the index only fluctuating within a narrow range of 2-6 points for most of the trading time, before peaking at 7 points at nearly 2:00 p.m. But immediately after that, VIC was sold heavily, dragging FPT and some banking stocks down, causing the VN-Index to slide below the reference.

VCBS described this as an unexpected “out of breath” development, when cash flow was not strong enough to maintain the upward momentum in the context of the lack of consensus among blue-chip groups. This tug-of-war reflects the cautious sentiment of investors, when the market faces a resistance zone around 1,330 points.

When it seemed that red would dominate, the large banking group promptly joined in to revive the index. BOS pointed out that BID, CTG, TPB along with VRE (up 3.4%) were the main factors helping VN-Index regain green in the final minutes, closing the session at 1,331.92 points, up 1.6 points (0.12%).

VCBS added that GVR (+3.07%) also contributed to balancing the score, along with the positive performance from BID (+0.39%) and TPB (+2.41%). Liquidity on HoSE reached more than VND21 trillion, showing that cash flow remained stable, although not too sudden.

In a broader view, the recovery of the banking group is not surprising. BOS commented that this is a positive reaction in the context of mixed stock market closing in the Asia-Pacific region: Japan increased slightly, but Hong Kong decreased sharply due to profit-taking pressure in the technology group. Domestically, large banking groups such as BID and CTG have become "supports" when other stocks are under selling pressure. However, the question is whether this recovery is strong enough to create a foundation for a sustainable uptrend, or is it just a "cover" to hide potential pressure from the market?

Technically, both BOS and VCBS believe that the VN-Index is in an important testing phase. BOS noted that despite a slight increase, the index closed with a red candle, indicating that selling pressure at prices above 1,330 still overwhelmed buyers. This is consistent with VCBS's assessment, when describing this session's candle as similar to a "Spinning Top" - a manifestation of the tug-of-war between supply and demand.

On the daily chart, VCBS shows that the RSI and MACD indicators are in high territory, explaining the fluctuations during the session. However, the +DI and ADX lines are anchored above 25, indicating that the medium-term uptrend is still maintained, minimizing the risk of a deep correction.

In the time frame, VN-Index crossed the upper limit of the Bollinger Band in the morning session, but returned to move within this range in the afternoon session, explaining the fluctuations at the end of the day. The crossover signal between +DI and -DI above the 25 mark further strengthens the forecast that the index will continue to move sideways within the +/-10 point range in the short term. BOS also shares the same view, predicting that VN-Index will move sideways around the 1,330 point range in the next session, when the blue-chip group has not yet found a clear consensus. This divergence puts investors in front of a difficult problem: hold the portfolio or take profits?

Another notable point in the session was the net selling activity of foreign investors. BOS recorded a net selling value of more than VND425 billion on all three exchanges, while VCBS reported a figure of VND396.83 billion, focusing on codes such as FPT, SHB, TPB. Although the net selling level was not too large compared to the liquidity of the whole market, this was still a signal showing the caution of foreign investors. This may stem from the regional context, when the Hong Kong market fell sharply due to pressure from the technology group - a factor that BOS mentioned.

However, the pressure from foreign investors is not completely “obsessive”. With improved domestic liquidity and stable domestic cash flow in sectors such as rubber (DPR, GVR), electricity (POW +2.35%, GEE +4.38%), and securities, the market still shows certain resilience.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/vn-index-hoi-phuc-nhe-nhung-ap-luc-chot-loi-dang-rinh-rap-161848.html