International market fluctuations, what opportunities for Vietnamese stocks?

Mr. Trinh Thanh Can, General Director of Kafi Securities Joint Stock Company

Strong growth is the driving force for the stock market

Mr. Trinh Thanh Can, General Director of Kafi Securities Joint Stock Company, said that at present, the Vietnamese economy is still maintaining a stable growth rate, with a GDP growth target of more than 8% in 2025. This demonstrates the Government's strong efforts in reforming the apparatus, promoting public investment and operating flexible monetary policy. The Government is implementing effective solutions, from streamlining the apparatus to promoting the disbursement of public investment capital, all of which create important driving forces to promote rapid economic development.

“During the National Assembly session last November, the Government passed eight major laws and 21 important resolutions, demonstrating its strong determination to improve the investment and business environment in Vietnam. Along with that, the Government has increased the public investment target to nearly VND900 trillion and is promoting key projects, with the goal of effective disbursement in 2025. Although the disbursement rate in the first two months of 2025 has not reached a high level, the absolute figure has improved compared to the same period last year, showing the Government's determination to promote economic growth,” Mr. Can emphasized.

In particular, according to him, strong reforms in law and monetary policy, with stable operating interest rates, have created a favorable environment for businesses and investors. Thanks to that, the economy will achieve its set goals, helping the Vietnamese stock market become a bright spot on the international financial map.

Opportunity or challenge for Vietnam?

Although Vietnam's economy is still growing steadily, it is undeniable that fluctuations in the global economy will have a certain impact. Specifically, US President Donald Trump's trade policies with the "America First" strategy, along with the slowdown of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction plan, can create pressure on investment capital flows into emerging markets, including Vietnam.

However, Mr. Trinh Thanh Can assessed that Vietnam is still in a favorable position. The reason is that while the US focuses on large countries like China, Vietnam is an attractive destination for FDI capital flows. A clear proof of this is the impressive figure of 6.9 billion USD of FDI capital registered in Vietnam in the first months of 2025, an increase of 35% over the same period last year. This is an encouraging result, as the amount of FDI registered in Vietnam in the early stages of the year often tends to grow slowly due to holiday factors. This figure not only reflects investors' confidence in the Vietnamese economy, but is also a clear sign of a strong shift of investment capital flows from large countries to Vietnam.

Mr. Can said that although the Fed's policies may have a short-term impact on indirect capital flows (FII), he believes that when the Fed implements interest rate cuts in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, foreign capital flows will return to Vietnam. This will continue to strengthen the stability and development of the Vietnamese stock market in the second half of 2025.

Investment opportunities in Vietnam stock market?

2025 promises to be a promising year for the Vietnamese stock market. According to Mr. Trinh Thanh Can, the stock market will continue to grow strongly, with a forecast of an increase of 12% to 15% this year. Factors such as GDP growth, public investment disbursement and the upgrading of the Vietnamese stock market will create strong momentum for the market's development.

Forecasts from Kafi Securities Company suggest that the Vietnamese stock market will close 2025 at 1,300 to 1,500 points, corresponding to a growth rate of about 12% to 15%. Mr. Can commented that the industry groups with outstanding prospects in 2025 will include: banking, technology, industrial park real estate, construction and building materials, along with retail.

The banking sector will be one of the biggest beneficiaries thanks to positive GDP growth, credit growth and stable monetary policy. Large banks, especially those with large scale and high liquidity, will continue to attract investors' attention. The technology sector, with the strong development of the global chip supply chain and domestic technology resources, will continue to open up many attractive investment opportunities.

The industrial real estate sector is also showing great prospects thanks to the demand for shifting production from China to Vietnam. Along with that, the construction and building materials industry will continue to benefit from infrastructure projects that the Government has invested heavily in in 2025.

The retail industry, especially the F&B, phone and garment sectors, is expected to have a strong recovery in the second half of 2025 when domestic demand grows again.

Although the market has a positive outlook, Mr. Trinh Thanh Can also emphasized that investors need to be cautious and have a reasonable investment strategy. In the first half of 2025, the market will fluctuate between positive and negative information, and this will be the right time for professional investors to take advantage of buying or selling opportunities. For new investors, investing in stocks based on rumors can cause unnecessary risks. Therefore, accumulating investment, good stock analysis, and using consulting services from reputable securities companies will help minimize risks and maximize profits.

Investors should also be cautious about using margin in the early stages of the year to better manage risks. However, when entering the second half of 2025, the market will tend to be more positive and this will be an opportunity to increase disbursement.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/thi-truong-quoc-te-bien-dong-co-hoi-nao-cho-chung-khoan-viet-161811.html