Asian stock markets mixed

Asian shares were mixed on Monday, ahead of a week of economic news that is expected to highlight the relative outperformance of the United States.

Asian shares were mixed on Monday, ahead of a week of economic news that is expected to highlight the relative superiority of the United States and support the dollar's gains.

Closing stock prices and exchange rates are seen on a board during the last trading session of 2024 at the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in Tokyo, Japan, December 30, 2024. Photo: Reuters

The star of this week's US economic data is Friday's December jobs report, where analysts are forecasting a gain of 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%.

Other reports include ADP hiring data, job openings, weekly jobless claims, and surveys on manufacturing, services and consumer sentiment.

Any positive news would reinforce the view that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates less often, and the market has now reduced expectations to just 40 basis points in 2025.

Minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting will be released on Wednesday, providing more insight into future interest rate projections, along with live statements from at least seven senior policymakers, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

Inflation data from the EU and Germany this week will clarify the outlook for interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB), while China's consumer price index due on Thursday is expected to support stimulus measures there.

Market cautious with potential risks ahead

With high risks ahead regarding the events that will unfold, investors turned cautious and global indices were mixed. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6%, after losing 1% last week.

Japan's Nikkei index fell 1.8% as it returned to trading after a holiday, pressured in part by Japanese government bond (JGB) yields rising to their highest since 2011.

Chinese blue-chip shares fell 0.1%, despite a survey showing services activity grew at its fastest pace in seven months in December.

The Lucky Beneficiaries

EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.3%, DAX rose 0.2%, while FTSE fell 0.1%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were little changed in thin trading.

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the S&P 500 will achieve a total return of 25% in 2024, the second consecutive year of gains above 20% - the last time this happened was in 1998/1999.

The rally has been fairly narrow, with nearly half of the gains coming from just five stocks, but Goldman still forecasts another 11% gain this year on similar earnings growth. Reports for the recent earnings season begin Jan. 15.

Bond and money market

The US bond market was less positive, with the 10-year yield rising slightly to 4.631%, very close to last week's eight-month high of 4.641%.

Investor demand will be tested this week with the issuance of $119 billion in new three-, 10- and 30-year bonds.

The steady rise in yields kept the dollar index at 108.870, after rising nearly 0.9% last week to peak at 109.540.

The euro held at $1.0315, approaching last week’s 26-month low of $1.0225. It now faces resistance around $1.0340, as momentum funds still target the psychologically important $1,000 level.

The dollar extended its gains last week, pushing the pound to an eight-month low of $1.2349. The pound was still volatile at $1.2435.

The strength of the dollar became an obstacle for gold, keeping the price of this precious metal at $2,637/ounce.

Oil prices were supported by colder weather in Europe and the US, with a winter storm bringing snow, ice and widespread freezes to the US on Sunday.

However, the initial gains gradually faded, causing Brent crude to fall 16 cents to $76.35 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 15 cents to $73.81 a barrel./.

Minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting will be released on Wednesday, providing more insight into future interest rate projections, along with live statements from at least seven senior policymakers, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/thi-truong-co-phieu-tai-chau-a-bien-dong-trai-chieu-368209.html