Stock market on March 21: Opportunities still exist but caution is needed

The warrant market in recent trading sessions continued to be under strong correction pressure when the number of decreasing codes dominated with 86 decreasing codes, only 63 increasing codes and 23 unchanged codes. The liquidity of the warrant market also decreased significantly, when the trading volume only reached 37.7 million CW (down 44.29%) and the trading value decreased by 45.59% to 30.88 billion VND.

The total market trading volume in the session of March 20 reached 37.7 million CW, down 44.29%; the trading value reached 30.88 billion VND, down 45.59% compared to the session of March 19.

Notably, CVIC2501, CVHM2501, CHPG2408 and CVRE2505 were the names that recorded the sharpest declines, reflecting the lack of upward momentum from underlying stocks. Foreign investors continued their net selling trend with a value of 793,700 CW, focusing on CSSB2401 and CVHM2411.

However, according to valuations from some securities companies, codes such as CVIC2502 and CVIC2503 are currently at attractive prices. At the same time, codes with high effective gearing (price elasticity of options) such as CSTB2412 and CTCB2405 are still options for adventurous investors, when expecting strong fluctuations from the underlying stocks.

In the derivatives market, VN30 futures contracts all recorded a slight decrease. The nearest contract, VN30F2503, decreased by 0.04% to 1,376.5 points, while the basis continued to be negative (-2.45 points), reflecting a certain pessimism from investors about the short-term trend.

Although liquidity in the derivatives market increased slightly, foreign investors still maintained their net selling momentum with a total selling volume of more than 11,104 contracts. Current technical indicators such as MACD giving sell signals, combined with the fact that VN30-Index returned to test the Bollinger Bands support zone, show that the correction is not completely over.

Domestic cash flow showed signs of slight improvement as the self-employed continued to net buy, focusing on leading stocks such as FPT, SSI, ACB and MWG. However, this buying force was not strong enough to absorb selling pressure from foreign investors, who were continuously net withdrawing with a value of up to VND 1,450 billion in the session on March 20.

This has left the market in a state of “green skin, red heart”, as the number of stocks that have decreased still dominates even though the index has not decreased sharply. This is a signal showing an increasingly clear differentiation between stock groups.

Most securities companies agree on a short-term correction, while noting the tug-of-war around the 1,320-point support zone. Yuanta Securities Company assesses that short-term risks remain high, and recommends that investors keep their stock ratio at 40-50% of their portfolio and should not disburse heavily at this time.

Meanwhile, KB Securities Vietnam JSC (KBSV) believes that the candlestick pattern on March 20 reflects the re-establishment of balance and opens up the possibility of a return to an uptrend. Sharing the same view, Tien Phong Securities JSC (TPS) predicts that the market may recover to the 1,340-point area in the coming sessions, if the support level of 1,318 points continues to be effective.

BIDV Securities Company and SHS believe that the market will remain divided and fluctuate within the range of 1,320-1,330 points. Therefore, investors should focus on leading stocks with solid fundamentals in key sectors such as banking, public investment, retail and industrial parks.

The stock market is in a transitional phase between short-term corrections and long-term growth expectations. In the context of widespread cautious sentiment, selecting stocks with good fundamentals and cash flow will be a survival strategy.

The current fluctuations can be seen as an opportunity to restructure the portfolio, instead of being overly concerned. Maintaining a reasonable amount of cash and disbursing in parts when the market establishes a solid support zone will help investors avoid risks and optimize investment performance in the first quarter of 2025.