All because of the grain?

Following a series of tense developments between Warsaw and Kiev over a ban on Ukrainian grain imports, Polish President Andrzej Duda has called for a de-escalation of the dispute with its Eastern European neighbor, saying it should not overshadow economic cooperation between the two countries.

“I do not believe that a political and legal dispute can ruin the achievements you have made,” President Duda said at the Poland-Ukraine Business Summit in the central-western city of Poznan on September 22. “I have no doubt that the dispute over grain supplies is only a small part of Polish-Ukrainian relations and it will not really affect them.”

Mr Duda's comments came after a week of tensions between the two neighbours, culminating in Warsaw unilaterally imposing a ban on Ukrainian grain imports to appease disgruntled Polish farmers, while Kiev complained to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Polish President Andrzej Duda welcomes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland, April 5, 2023. Poland has been the most enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine within the EU since Russia launched its military campaign in Eastern Europe. Photo: El Pais

Poland and the eastern member states of the European Union (EU) – with the exception of Hungary – have been by far the most consistent supporters of Ukraine in the alliance since Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine last February.

However, now not only are cracks appearing in this wall of unity, but there are even significant feelings of discomfort between Ukraine and some of its neighbors in Central and Eastern Europe.

The source of the tension may be the EU lifting temporary trade restrictions on Ukrainian grains and oilseeds from September 15, but deeper still are the bitter elections looming in Poland and Slovakia, as well as political fragmentation in Bulgaria, and Hungary’s foreign policy goals.

No more “Solidarity Corridor”

Ukraine is one of the world's largest producers of grains and oilseeds. Until recently, most of its exports were directed to regions outside the EU.

However, Russia’s “closure” of the Black Sea after withdrawing from the UN-Türkiye-brokered deal means that Ukraine is now cut off from its traditional export routes, and is forced to rely on other routes such as land transit routes through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania within the framework of the EU-established “Solidarity Corridor”.

Problems have arisen repeatedly, especially in Poland. Ukrainian grain arriving here, instead of being transported across the country to other markets, lands on the Polish market – pushing down prices for domestic products or occupying storage facilities.

Following several farmer protests, both Poland and Hungary imposed import restrictions on Ukrainian grain in mid-April, forcing the EU to impose a temporary import ban across the entire union.

The ban is set to remain in place until it expires on September 15. The EU sees the decision not to extend the ban as a gesture of solidarity with Ukraine. But in the EU’s eastern member states, the issue has long taken on a very different significance. In Poland, for the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, it is about maintaining their power.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki speaks during a press conference at the headquarters of the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) in Warsaw, September 20, 2023. Photo: Balkan Insight

In what many observers see as a pivotal election, Poles will elect a new parliament on October 15. Farmers played a key role in PiS's two previous election victories in 2015 and 2019.

As the general election neared, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was increasingly reluctant to anger his farmers, which would have hurt his party’s electoral prospects. So after the EU-wide ban, which had been in place since May, expired, Morawiecki’s government quickly implemented a unilateral import ban.

There is still hope for a compromise, however: Poland's embargo concerns imports, not the transit of Ukrainian grain.

“Serious War”

A similar situation is playing out in Slovakia, where the upcoming parliamentary elections on September 30 are also linked to the grain dispute. Like in neighboring Poland, the election is seen as pivotal for Slovaks.

After more than three years under a pro-Western reform coalition government, Slovakia could see the return of former Prime Minister Robert Fico. A social democrat in name, Fico is in fact a right-wing nationalist with close ties to Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Mr. Fico has repeatedly made pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian statements, and has affirmed that Slovakia will stop providing military support to Ukraine.

It is possible that the interim government led by acting Prime Minister Ludovit Odor has decided to unilaterally maintain import restrictions on Ukrainian grain to win over voters. Or rather, if Mr. Odor allows Ukrainian grain to flow into the Slovak market without restrictions, it will push more voters into the arms of right-wing politician Fico.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and then-Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico inaugurate the cross-border bridge over the Danube River between the towns of Komárom (Hungary) and Komárno (Slovakia), October 17, 2017. Photo: Slovak Spectator

In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban was right to predict a “serious fight” between the EU’s eastern member states and the bloc’s Brussels-based executive, even before the EU decided to lift import restrictions on Ukrainian grain.

The nationalist leader is likely to decide to unilaterally maintain the ban on Ukrainian grain imports in order to seek a sense of “allies” with countries that are Hungary’s former partners but have been at odds with Budapest since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine.

Because of Mr Orban's "friendly" stance towards Russia, Hungary has been largely isolated in the region on foreign policy during nearly 20 months of conflict.

Fierce internal divisions

Unlike the three countries mentioned above, Romania is not as “tough” on imports from Ukraine. Bucharest wants to extend the ban on Ukrainian grain imports, but initially it will only be effective for 30 days.

Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said on September 18 that his country had given Ukraine a deadline to come up with a plan to protect Romanian farmers from “uncontrolled” grain flows from Ukraine. In addition to Ukraine’s action plan, the Romanian government wants to decide on appropriate measures to protect its farmers.

Parliamentary and presidential elections are scheduled for late 2024 in Romania, which means the Ukrainian grain issue is not as urgent here as in Poland and Slovakia.

However, the far-right Romanian National Union (AUR) party is gaining influence in Romania. AUR has a “pro-Russian” stance, and one of its policies is to unite all Romanians into one country, including those in the northern region of Bukovina, which is part of Ukraine.

Romanian Defense Minister Angel Tilvar (second from left) visits areas in the Danube Delta near the border with Ukraine, September 6, 2023, amid reports of debris from a Russian drone that crashed on the territory of Romania - a NATO member state. Photo: Al Jazeera

In Bulgaria, the issue of Ukrainian grain is likely to cause bitter divisions within the country. Bulgaria was the only eastern EU member state to lift import restrictions on Ukrainian grain last week. Farmers across the country are now protesting the decision by the “pro-Western” government led by Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov.

Bulgaria has just held its fifth parliamentary election in 24 months, and now has a stable governing majority for the first time in several years. It remains to be seen whether the protests pose a threat to that stability.

For its part, the European Commission (EC) has decided to take a “wait and see” approach. Although it is responsible for the bloc’s trade policy, the EC said it wanted to analyze the measures taken by Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania.

The EC does not see a need to ban imports as there are no longer any market distortions, said Miriam Garcia Ferrer, a spokeswoman for the EC. The Commission plans to review the situation in a month's time. It may then take legal action against Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and possibly Romania.

If so, it is likely that the EC will act after the elections in Poland and Slovakia are over .

(According to DW, Bloomberg)

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/tranh-cai-giua-ukraine-dong-minh-o-dong-au-tat-ca-chi-tai-ngu-coc-a627826.html