Skyrocketing to 145,000 VND/kg?

Pepper price forecast August 21, 2024: The upward trend continues, heading towards a new price zone? Pepper price forecast August 22, 2024: Surpassing the 140,000 VND mark, will the price increase cycle continue?

Pepper price forecast for August 23, 2024 continues to increase. Preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs show that in the first 15 days of August 2024, Vietnam exported a total of 10,006 tons of pepper, earning 59.59 million USD.

Accumulated to August 15, 2024, Vietnam's pepper exports reached 173,372 tons, worth 820.16 million USD. Thus, the goal of returning to the billion-dollar pepper export "club" is very close.

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spices Association (VPSA), the top three pepper exporting companies in Vietnam in the first 15 days of August were Haprosimex JSC, Olam Vietnam and Lien Thanh, with export volumes of 1,471 tons, 1,105 tons and 989 tons, respectively.

Regarding imports, Vietnam purchased 569 tons of pepper in the first 15 days of August, with a total value of 3.1 million USD. Brazil and Indonesia were the two main pepper suppliers to Vietnam, with imports of 219 tons and 211 tons, respectively. The largest pepper importer was Tran Chau, with a total import volume of 219 tons.

Vietnam's pepper import and export situation in the first half of August 2024 showed a decline, reflecting the scarcity of supply from Vietnam.

Pepper price forecast August 23, 2024: Skyrocketing to 145,000 VND/kg?

In the domestic market, pepper prices today, August 22, 2024, in the Southeast region increased sharply, recording the largest increase of 3,000 VND/kg, trading around 142,000 - 144,000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces was 144,000 VND/kg.

Accordingly, Dak Lak pepper price was purchased at 144,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Chu Se pepper price (Gia Lai) was purchased at 142,000 VND/kg, an increase of 2,000 VND compared to yesterday. Dak Nong pepper price today was recorded at 144,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices today increased by 2,000 - 3,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, it is currently at 143,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday; in Binh Phuoc, pepper prices today are at 142,000 VND/kg, an increase of 2,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

In the international market, updating world pepper prices from the International Pepper Association (IPC), at the end of the most recent trading session, IPC listed the price of Indonesian Lampung black pepper at 7,537 USD/ton, up 0.16% compared to yesterday, the price of Muntok white pepper reached 8,874 USD/ton, up 0.15%.

The price of Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper remained stable at USD 6,300/ton, up 1.96%. The price of Malaysian ASTA black pepper continued to stand firm at USD 8,500/ton; the price of this country's ASTA white pepper reached USD 10,400/ton.

Vietnam black pepper price is traded at 5,800 USD/ton for 500 g/l; 550 g/l at 6,200 USD/ton; white pepper price at 8,500 USD/ton.

Domestic pepper prices reached an 8-year peak in June 2024 at VND180,000/kg, and currently the market is around VND140,000/kg.

The new crop is expected to be harvested after Tet (February 2025) with a slightly increased output compared to the previous crop's figure of 170,000 tons. Vietnam's inventory is about 30%, equivalent to 50,000 - 55,000 tons.

Climate change and high durian and coffee prices are not yet attractive enough for farmers to replant pepper intensively.

The global pepper market is worth about 5.4 billion USD, forecast to grow at an average of 20% in the period 2024 - 2032. Currently, Vietnam's pepper output accounts for 40% and exports account for 60% of the world market share.

Brazil is the world's second largest producer and exporter of black pepper after Vietnam, accounting for 17-18% of total global supply.

The continuous crop failure in Brazil is expected to cause a global ripple effect, expected to push global pepper prices up in the last months of 2024 when pepper supply from other major producing countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. also decreases significantly.

The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) forecasts that pepper prices will continue to increase as global demand remains high while supply is limited. VPSA aims to prioritize stabilizing pepper acreage, focusing on solutions to improve quality, and diversifying processed products with high added value.

Domestic pepper price on August 22, 2024