Demand gradually improves, credit has a strong growth base

Pumping an additional 2.5 million billion VND into the economy

In 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) set a credit growth target of 16% for the economic growth target of 8%, equivalent to injecting nearly 2.5 quadrillion VND into the economy. However, if GDP growth reaches 10%, credit growth must be at 18-20%, meaning the banking sector will have to inject an additional 2.8-3.1 quadrillion VND into the economy.

The Prime Minister and the State Bank of Vietnam have worked with banks to discuss solutions to inject VND2.5 - 3 million billion into the economy this year. To support GDP growth, the State Bank of Vietnam continues to innovate the credit room allocation mechanism. Thanks to the early credit room allocation, banks have developed plans to accelerate credit from the beginning of the year.

Credit institutions assessed that the demand for loans continued to improve and forecasted credit growth to reach 3.4% in the first quarter of the year and 14.2% in 2025, according to the results of the survey on business trends in the first quarter of 2025 conducted by the State Bank. The expectations of credit institutions were completely well-founded, according to a financial expert, because in addition to credit directed to production and business activities, priority sectors, real estate and infrastructure are also considered the driving force for credit growth this year.

This year, the economic growth target is 8% or more, creating momentum for double-digit growth in the coming period, so bank credit will be an important capital channel. To achieve this target, the Government is stepping up the implementation of large projects and public investment, so banks will expand credit towards real estate types serving real estate needs, real estate is the satellite of major projects, public transport axes such as the development of stations, railways, small urban areas...

In fact, credit growth has shown positive signs since the beginning of this year. According to the State Bank of Vietnam’s Standing Deputy Governor, Mr. Dao Minh Tu, credit has increased by nearly 1% so far, while at the same time in 2023 and 2024 it was negative 0.74%. This shows a strong recovery in credit demand, creating favorable momentum to support the banking industry’s 16% credit growth target in 2025.

According to the State Bank of Vietnam, Region II Branch, as of the end of February 2025, total outstanding credit in Ho Chi Minh City reached VND3.9 million billion, down slightly by 0.17% compared to the end of the year, but up 12.2% over the same period. Although down slightly compared to the previous month, credit in Ho Chi Minh City still maintained positive points, associated with the State Bank's monetary and credit policy to meet the capital needs of the economy.

Credit growth could reach over 16%

Deputy Governor Dao Minh Tu said that in order for the economy to achieve its growth target this year, the banking sector has a great responsibility in creating conditions to support capital for the economy, especially capital for businesses to expand investment. However, to grow, it is necessary to expand investment, and to expand investment, there are two issues: investment capital sources and increasing the ability and conditions for businesses to absorb capital.

MBS forecasts that credit growth for the entire industry in 2025 will reach 17-18% thanks to the strong recovery of the manufacturing and consumption sectors, especially retail credit.

According to the plan set out this year, nearly a dozen banks forecast credit growth of over 16%, of which 4 banks have credit growth of over 20% including Techcombank (20.5%), VPBank (24.1%), VIB (25.2%), HDBank (25.6%)...

Ms. Nguyen Thuy Hanh, General Director of Standard Chartered Vietnam, commented that 2024 is a difficult year, but Vietnam's credit growth still reached more than 15%. Therefore, the banking industry's credit growth target of 16% for this year can be achieved. Credit growth is driven by several key areas such as public costs, additional costs to serve production and business of the private sector...

According to Dr. Nguyen Tu Anh, former Director of the Center for Economic Information, Analysis and Forecast (Central Policy and Strategy Committee), if export growth can be maintained at 8-10% and businesses’ confidence in economic growth prospects can be strengthened, credit will increase sharply. On the contrary, many external risks will reduce credit growth this year.

Dr. Tran Du Lich, a financial and economic expert, said that with the credit growth target this year, the huge amount of capital expected to be pumped into the economy will create a strong boost for aggregate demand. However, if capital does not flow into production and business, but into stocks or real estate, the risk of virtual growth and financial bubbles like in 2016 is very high.