In the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam's coffee export volume will reach more than 585,000 tons.

At the end of the trading session on April 9, world coffee prices moved in opposite directions, with Arabica coffee prices increasing again, while Robusta continued to decrease.

Specifically, on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, the price of Robusta coffee for delivery in May 2024 decreased by 14 USD/ton, at 3,728 USD/ton; delivery in July 2024 decreased by 10 USD/ton, at 3,673 USD/ton.

In contrast, on the ICE Futures US exchange, the price of Arabica coffee for May 2024 delivery increased by 2.45 cents/lb, at 213.55 cents/lb, and for July 2024 delivery increased by 2.4 cents/lb, at 211.85 cents/lb.

Arabica coffee prices rose as the Brazilian real rose to a 1-1/2-week high against the dollar, prompting Brazilian farmers to limit sales as they earn less local currency.

Domestic coffee prices were relatively stable compared to yesterday, with the highest transaction at VND105,000/kg in Dak Nong and Dak Lak; the lowest in Lam Dong at VND104,000/kg.

Concerns that excessive dryness in Vietnam will limit domestic Robusta coffee output pushed prices to a record high last Thursday and Arabica to a six-month high.

Marex Group Plc forecasts a global Robusta coffee deficit of about 2.7 million bags in 2024/25, mainly due to a shortfall in output from Vietnam.

Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, Director of Vinh Hiep Company Limited - one of the leading green coffee bean exporters, admitted that the company's inventory is only enough to sell until around May, while the new coffee harvest will not begin until October 2024.

This is proof that the 2023-2024 coffee crop is really a bad one, although many people still do not believe this because they think that coffee is still being stored somewhere. According to Mr. Hiep, Vietnam's coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop is down 17%-20% due to reduced productivity and many coffee growing areas have been converted to other crops.

Robusta came under pressure on Tuesday after the General Department of Customs reported that Vietnam's coffee exports in March 2024 reached 188,972 tons, up 17.7% from the previous month but down 10.2% from the same period in 2023. The turnover reached nearly 672 million USD, up 27.1% from the previous month and up 39.2% from the same period in 2023.

Average coffee export price in March 2024 continued to increase and reached the highest level in the past 6 months.

Thus, Vietnam's coffee exports in March 2024 decreased sharply compared to the previous estimate of 400,000 tons. In the first quarter of 2024, the total coffee export volume reached 585,696 tons, up 5.9% over the same period in 2023; the turnover reached nearly 1.93 billion USD, up sharply by 56.7%.

The average export price of coffee in March 2024 continued to increase and reached the highest level in the past 6 months, reaching 3,555 USD/ton, up 8% compared to the previous month and up 55.0% compared to the same period in 2023. Overall, in the first quarter of 2024, it reached 3,289 USD/ton, up 48% compared to the same period in 2023.

Coffee prices still have room to rise, industry experts say, amid ongoing supply concerns. Major, influential suppliers such as Vietnam and Indonesia are experiencing one of their worst heatwaves in recent years, with their exports expected to fall by more than a fifth this year.

Weather conditions in Vietnam are still considered hot and dry, although there has been some rain in some places, some major production areas have not received the necessary rainfall with rivers and lakes running dry. According to weather forecasts, rainfall will gradually increase towards the end of the month.

According to exporters, Vietnamese Robusta coffee has a relatively solid position and is not easily replaced in the world market. Despite the scarcity of supply and high prices, Vietnamese coffee is still sought after by foreign roasters. This creates the basis and room for export coffee prices to continue to increase.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the world price of Robusta coffee continued to increase strongly by 8.2% in March and remained at its highest level since 1994. In addition, global green coffee bean exports also recorded a new record.

The ICO report shows that the world coffee price compiled and monitored by this agency reached an average of 186.4 US Cents/lb in March, up 2.4% compared to the previous month and up 9.6% compared to the same period last year. Corresponding to the price fluctuating between 181.4 - 193.3 US Cents/lb.

Thus, world coffee prices have increased for 6 consecutive months and are at their highest level in the past 18 months. The main reason is that Robusta coffee prices continued to increase strongly by 8.2% compared to the previous month to the highest level in nearly 30 years, reaching an average of 165.8 US Cents/lb.

Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices fluctuated in opposite directions, with Brazilian Arabica decreasing slightly by 0.5% to an average of 185.8 US Cents/lb.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/quy-i2024-luong-ca-phe-xuat-khau-cua-viet-nam-dat-hon-585000-tan-313865.html