Mid-range housing segment

(CLO) Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, predicts: In 2025, the mid- to high-end housing segment will have a large downward adjustment.

Supply is mainly concentrated in the high-end segment.

In 2024, apartment supply in major markets such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will have mixed developments. However, the supply of newly opened apartments in these two markets has one thing in common, which is that most of them are in the high-end segment, with expensive prices.

A newly released CBRE report shows that in 2024, the supply of newly opened apartments in Hanoi will be 30,900 units, a three-fold increase compared to 2023. The selling price is recorded at 72 million VND/m2, an increase of 36% over the same period last year, which is also the highest increase recorded in the past 8 years.

The supply of newly opened apartments in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City has one thing in common: most of them are in the high-end segment, with relatively expensive prices. (Photo: ST)

“Most of the new supply in this quarter focused on high-end projects with full legal status, developed in the urban areas of Nam Tu Liem and Gia Lam, which are already in operation with a certain number of residents. This has led to an increase in primary selling prices as well as sales rates exceeding 70% in the projects,” CBRE’s report stated.

In contrast, in Ho Chi Minh City, the supply of newly launched apartments in Ho Chi Minh City was the lowest since 2013, with only 5,050 newly launched apartments. Current apartments have an average primary selling price of VND76 million/m2, up nearly 24% year-on-year.

This increase is due to more than 70% of new supply in the year in the city being high-end to luxury projects and projects opening for sale in the next phase adjusting selling prices to increase from 10% to 40% compared to the previous phase.

“Typically, there is a project in the Thu Thiem area offering the final phase of apartments for sale at prices up to 490 million VND/m2 of net area,” the CBRE report stated.

Recently, real estate research companies in Vietnam have forecast that in 2025, the luxury apartment segment will continue to "explode" and lead the market.

According to CBRE, the new supply of apartments in Hanoi is expected to continue to be abundant, estimated at more than 31,000 units for sale, higher than in 2024. Supply is mainly concentrated in the high-end segment, with an increase in luxury supply.

Meanwhile, according to OneHousing's forecast, the supply of mid-range apartments will almost disappear from the two markets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in 2025. The number of newly opened apartment products in the Hanoi market in 2025 is estimated to reach about 30,000 units. Of which, about 60-70% are high-end apartments and 30-40% are luxury apartments.

In the Ho Chi Minh City market, the new supply in 2025 is expected to be about 12,000 units, of which the high-end and luxury supply accounts for 88%. Of which, the high-end segment accounts for 42%, the luxury segment accounts for 46%.

Will the mid- to high-end housing segment have a major downward adjustment in 2025?

Most opinions agree that in 2025, apartment prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will increase. Even the high-end and luxury segments will continue to increase, because the current is not the "peak".

OneHousing experts said that recently, many localities have applied new land price lists with relatively high adjustment levels. This leads to higher input costs for businesses, which will also lead to higher output.

Most opinions agree that in 2025, apartment prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will increase. (Photo: ST)

Agreeing with this opinion, Mr. Tran Trung Tuan, a real estate expert, said: In the context that Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have announced new land price lists, with an adjustment of 3-8 times, apartment prices in these two cities will increase, regardless of segment. Not to mention, the cost and material prices have tended to increase in recent months. Therefore, Mr. Tuan said that waiting for apartment prices to decrease is impossible.

However, there are still opinions that the mid- to high-end housing segment will have a large downward adjustment in 2025.

Speaking more clearly about this issue, Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, analyzed: Firstly, the market in 2024 has increased too high in this segment.

Second, the subjects of this segment are making major adjustments in their needs, in their behavior, and in their outlook.

“In particular, because the industrial real estate market in 2025 is forecast to grow well, resources will be directed to the industrial real estate segment. Other housing and land segments will not have major fluctuations,” said Associate Professor Dr. Tran Kim Chung.

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/phan-khuc-nha-o-trung--cao-cap-se-co-dieu-chinh-giam-lon-trong-nam-2025-post330114.html