Risk of collision between asteroid YR4 and Earth

The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) once warned that asteroid 2024 YR4 is at risk of colliding with Earth in December 2032.

NASA says asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter. Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 has a very low chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. According to the latest observations, the chance of colliding with Earth has now dropped to almost zero.

The asteroid’s impact probability will continue to be reassessed as astronomers continue to monitor it. By April 2025, the object will be too far away to be detected by Earth-based telescopes. More updates are expected in 2028, when 2024 YR4 will make its next close approach to Earth and become bright enough to be detected.

However, NASA assesses that 2024 YR4 is currently the most dangerous space object near Earth. The impact on Earth will be equivalent to a nuclear bomb. If it hits Earth, it is capable of flattening a city.

Nguy cơ va chạm giữa tiểu hành tinh YR4 với Trái đất - Ảnh 1.

NASA has refined its calculations and confirmed the risk is now just 0.28%. The chances of an asteroid impact vary based on observational data. The orbit is initially determined on the ground, then simulated using precise models to predict the path.

While near-Earth objects remain a long-term threat, space agencies around the world have developed strategies to mitigate potential impacts.

China has launched a planetary defense initiative to prevent 2024 YR4 from colliding with Earth. The State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (SASTIND) recently announced the establishment of a specialized space defense team, signaling China’s increased focus on space security. The development of the defense team was accelerated after the University of Hawaii’s Institute of Astronomy discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 in late December 2024.

In March 2023, NASA released the most detailed report yet on its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission. DART uses a spacecraft to change the orbit of an asteroid, using vertical kinetic energy to nudge the asteroid out of its path, enough to keep Earth safe.