The advent of ChatGPT and generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools marks a major breakthrough in the field of artificial intelligence development. At this point, how AI can impact relations between countries remains a big unknown.
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| The European Union's (EU) proposed Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act is causing controversy. (Source: CNN) |
The picture will become somewhat clearer if the following questions are answered.
Balance of Power
The first question is: How will AI change the balance of power between nations? Will it narrow the power gap between nations or concentrate more power in the hands of a few large nations?
Historically, national power has been measured by economic potential and military strength. In the future, the ability to develop AI technology as well as the ability to apply and integrate AI into the national governance apparatus will create a significant advantage, allowing the apparatus to operate more smoothly, effectively and stably. This will most likely benefit countries that are leading the technology race such as the US and China - two countries that have been exploiting AI to gain strategic advantages in key areas such as economics, military, diplomacy and social management.
AI will therefore concentrate power in the hands of a few countries rather than decentralize it, because only a few countries possess both huge data reserves and the technological and financial infrastructure to continuously operate and update AI systems effectively. The superiority that these two superpowers already have in the field of AI will strengthen their position in the international arena, preventing the current order from shifting towards multipolarity. Overall, AI can widen the gap between countries with advanced AI technology and the rest.
However, this outcome is not certain. Several factors may influence the impact of AI on the balance of power between countries. One is the emergence of unexpected breakthroughs in AI in small and medium-sized countries, which will inadvertently break the “monopoly” on AI of large countries. The second factor to consider is the different speed at which countries apply and integrate AI. Small countries may be latecomers and will not be able to create the most advanced AI systems, but in theory, they can exploit AI technology more effectively and wisely than large countries.
Armed Conflict in the Age of AI
The second question is: How will AI change the likelihood and intensity of armed conflict? In other words, will conflicts occur more or less frequently, with more or less casualties, in an AI-powered world?
The advent of AI in the military creates a paradox about future armed conflicts. On the one hand, AI could dramatically reduce casualties in war. Precision targeting techniques and algorithmic decision-making could lead to a more precise form of warfare than ever before, minimizing damage to both sides.
However, AI making armed conflict “cheaper” and “cleaner” could lead to states engaging in it more frequently. More wars are likely if the risk of casualties on both sides is significantly reduced. Leaders may be more willing to use military options if AI-driven warfare promises quick, effective, and clear results.
Still, the impact of AI on the frequency and intensity of conflict will be complex and multifaceted. The risk of escalation remains, as does the potential for international backlash against states that engage in AI-driven warfare without due consideration of human judgment and accountability. Moreover, the response of the international community, through potential legal frameworks, may also regulate the extent to which AI is integrated into military operations.
Solving global problems
The third question is: Can AI significantly help humans deal with global problems like climate change?
The potential of AI to address global challenges is enormous, as it can provide breakthrough solutions across a wide range of sectors. AI’s unparalleled data processing capabilities allow it to synthesize multiple formats and vast amounts of information to devise appropriate strategies to address pressing global issues such as climate change.
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| The birth of ChatGPT and generative AI tools marks a major breakthrough in the field of artificial intelligence development. (Source: Internet) |
By analyzing data continuously, AI can predict environmental changes with high accuracy, optimize energy consumption, and develop innovative methods to reduce carbon emissions. In the field of public health, AI can act as a “bulwark” against the spread of epidemics and pandemics. It can improve the speed and accuracy of forecasts, help us quickly control outbreaks by mining public health data, and distribute vaccines quickly to the most critical places.
Furthermore, AI’s contribution to solving global challenges has the potential to extend to international security and humanitarian aid. It can help monitor conflict zones, forecast refugee flows, and optimize aid delivery to the hardest-hit areas. AI could thus serve as the “backbone” of a new, faster-response and more efficient system for international cooperation and aid delivery, reducing response times to humanitarian disasters and improving the effectiveness of these responses.
Controlling AI: Is it Possible?
The final and perhaps most important question is: Can countries reach an international agreement to regulate AI before it is too late?
The UK under Chancellor Rishi Sunak recently hosted its first global summit on “AI safety,” a significant step toward international cooperation in managing risks associated with artificial intelligence. The result was a united front not only between political leaders and tech companies in establishing safety protocols for AI, but also between the two fiercely competing technological superpowers, the US and China.
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| The world's first summit on artificial intelligence (AI) took place at Bletchley, north of London, UK on 1-2/2023. (Source: Euronews) |
But this summit is just a symbolic first step. The ability of nations to reach a meaningful agreement to regulate AI in the future will depend on a complex interplay of many factors.
It is important that AI leaders and laggards find common ground when their interests are clearly at odds: Stronger countries will favor the exploitation of AI for economic gain and to maintain their power, while weaker countries will favor stricter regulations. However, we have precedents such as the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which show that even in a context of fierce competition, common ground can be found when the benefits of working together to limit a potentially dangerous technology outweigh the risks of allowing it to develop unchecked.
Strengthening the international community’s oversight capacity is also needed. Establishing controls that can cope with the rapid pace of AI development will require unprecedented levels of technical expertise and coordination between countries. Transparency in AI research and development will be crucial to ensuring compliance, just as inspection protocols are central to nuclear arms control treaties.
Finally, and most importantly, it comes down to public awareness. After all, leaders are most motivated to take bold action when their own citizens demand it. If citizens in every country support their governments taking real action to ensure the safety of AI, countries will have the incentive to cooperate in this ambitious effort. Otherwise, we risk being overwhelmed by the AI wave.
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