Is the 1,300 point mark easy to conquer?

The stock market experienced a rather shaky trading week at the end of March with alternating up and down sessions as the VN-Index approached the resistance zone of 1,300 points. The index's growth was halted by a down session at the end of the week when the market lost 6.09 points.

At the end of the week, VN-Index increased by 2.29 points, equivalent to 0.18% compared to the previous week to 1,284.09 points. HNX increased by 0.37% to 242.58 points.

Three codes LPB, VIB, VPB in the banking group led the market when contributing a total of 0.8 points to the VN-Index. Meanwhile, VCB and BID were the two codes that negatively impacted the market, with VCB alone taking away more than 1 point from the index.

Profit-taking selling pressure increased while demand was clearly hesitant, the total average trading value on HoSE reached VND 21,886.21 billion/session, down 20.3% compared to last week.

Foreign investors continued to sell off stocks strongly, notably with 2 sessions of net selling value of trillions. Last week, foreign investors net sold 4,650 billion VND in the whole market, this figure surpassed the record weekly net selling of 2023 in early December of 3,443 billion VND.

Finance - Banking - Stock market perspective April 1: Is the 1,300 point mark easy to conquer? — VN-Index performance last week (Source: TradingView).

Regarding developments in the coming trading week, Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Analysis, Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, said that the market could maintain its upward momentum, but the VN-Index may experience a correction when entering the 1,300 - 1,330 point range.

At the same time, the market may decline slightly in April after rising to the 1,300 - 1,330 point range. This is reasonable because April and May are the time when information is low and world market valuations are at a high level, but the adjustment in April may not affect the medium and long-term upward trend of the market.

On the foreign side, it is possible that they will not return to net buying at this time when the exchange rate is still under pressure to increase in the coming time and the exchange rate may still be anchored at a high level until the Fed starts to lower interest rates or the State Bank moves to increase interest rates.

Therefore, the market will still depend on and be led by the cash flow of domestic individual investors. Of course, if the market adjusts strongly to an attractive price range, it will also be a factor that can attract cash flow to return to net buying.

In the short term, Mr. Minh believes that investors should limit their purchases during this period and consider taking profits from stocks that have high profitability. At the same time, in the medium and long term, investors should prioritize buying and holding positions.

From a technical analysis perspective, Ms. Nguyen Phuong Nga - Vietcombank Securities Analyst said that on the daily chart, VN-Index continues to stick to the upper line of the Bollinger band, the three indicators MACD, RSI, CMF are still pointing up. However, the probability of negative divergence formation still needs to be taken into account if strong selling pressure appears in the resistance area of 1,290 - 1,300 points.

On the hourly chart, the Histogram line of the MACD indicator shows signs of negative divergence, and the RSI has continued to form a peak, along with DI+ pointing down and ADX below 20, showing that VN Index will have difficulty approaching the 1,290 - 1,300 point area again.

This expert recommends that investors limit new purchases at the present time, only maintaining the proportion of sectors that are attracting good cash flow such as securities and banks. The overall score is still mainly directly affected by the banking and securities stocks after the recent good increase.

Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company believes that the VN-Index may continue to adjust at the beginning of the session to the 1,278 point area and return to an upward trend at the end of the next session.

At the same time, the market may also quickly end the short-term correction, the weakening liquidity in the correction sessions shows that investors have not shown signs of exiting the market and are mainly still holding positions. In addition, the continued increase in sentiment indicators shows that investors are still optimistic about the current market developments.

The short-term trend of the general market remains UP. Therefore, Yuanta recommends that short-term investors can continue to hold a high proportion of stocks in their portfolio and limit new purchases at the uptrend in the coming sessions .

Source