Donald Trump's consecutive victories in the primaries could heat up Mr. Biden's campaign, creating stronger momentum for a rematch scenario.
Former President Donald Trump has just won a landslide victory over his opponent Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, after defeating her in Iowa in the Republican primary. He became the first Republican candidate to win two early primary states in a row, without being the incumbent president.
These easy victories have opened the way to the Republican National Convention, scheduled to take place in Wisconsin in July, for the 77-year-old former president. Ms. Haley, the only remaining serious opponent, is facing increasing pressure to drop out of the race, helping Mr. Trump become the official Republican presidential nominee in the shortest time ever.
Financial resources are a crucial factor in the US presidential election, with huge campaign and advertising costs, and Trump will want to secure victory as soon as possible. With no Republican challengers, he can focus his political resources and wallet on the expected rematch with President Joe Biden.
However, President Biden is also looking forward to identifying Trump as an opponent soon. The former president's consecutive victories will heat up the race and will encourage more anti-Trump voters to come out.
"Biden's team believes that the sooner American voters see a clear scenario of Trump returning to the White House, the more aggressively they will react to prevent that from happening," said Dan Balz, a political commentator who specializes in tracking the US presidential election for the Washington Post .
US President Joe Biden speaks in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on October 13, 2023. Photo: AFP
Mr. Biden just had his first victory in the Democratic primary election, also in New Hampshire, although his name was not on the ballot from the beginning due to internal party rules conflicts. However, his re-election campaign is making many allies skeptical because of his lack of determination in organizing and campaigning for voters.
In the 2020 race, the Covid-19 pandemic context made people sympathize with Mr. Biden, accepting that he ran the campaign remotely and did not need to organize too many in-person meetings with voters.
Mr. Biden also has a rather modest record when running for president in the "traditional" way. When he ran in 2008, he finished fifth in the Iowa primary.
In early 2020, when the election started in a normal state, before the US issued travel restrictions due to Covid-19, he finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire, losing out to the two prominent candidates at that time, Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. The turning point that year was the endorsement of Congressman Jim Clyburn, which helped Biden win the support of voters of color and turn the entire primary election situation around.
This time, he is running for re-election in an unfavorable context, with the US involved in many wars and his approval rating at a record low. Voters are also concerned that Mr. Biden will find it difficult to maintain a high level of work intensity if he serves as president for another four years.
In order to avoid losing out in the upcoming two-horse race, President Biden's team needs to convince American voters to remember the controversial issues surrounding Trump during and after his term, from the former president's impulsive personality, a series of legal troubles to his impact on the chaotic US political scene.
Polls show that Trump’s victory in New Hampshire was driven by regular Republicans, those without college degrees and Trump loyalists. Biden wants to bet on independents and anti-Trump voters who are not registered to vote, creating a counterweight to the wave of loyal Republicans.
"There is a truth that everyone knows but does not say: Mr. Trump is the opponent that the Democrats want the most," Ms. Haley said on January 23.
Ms Haley’s New Hampshire showing gave Mr Biden reason to hope his strategy would work. Independents voted for Ms Haley, accounting for 65% of the vote, while Republicans with college degrees overwhelmingly voted for the former US ambassador over Mr Trump.
Independent voters participating in the Republican primary election include those who are either registered members of that party, or are not affiliated with any other political party, and have never registered as members of the Democratic Party.
"Mr. Trump remains political poison to moderate voters. Sober and principled Republicans will never vote for a man who is a chaos maker, facing 91 criminal charges and willing to act unconstitutionally," said the Lincoln Project, an organization that mobilizes Republican voters against the former US president.
Former US President Donald Trump at a campaign event in Rochester, New Hampshire on January 21. Photo: AP
President Biden’s team believes they don’t need to act too soon and “burn money” wastefully. He is willing to wait for the race to become more clear and then go all out to attract voters to his side, according to campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz.
"Democrats had a strong showing in the recent midterm elections. The President's reelection committee is making significant preparations, building coalitions, and will continue to expand as voters become more interested in the November vote," Munoz said.
Jim Messina, former campaign manager for Obama and a close confidant of Biden, said the president is making a clear assessment of the situation. Given the current political landscape, Biden needs to craft a strong enough warning message about Trump to get Democratic voters to the polls on Election Day.
"With swing independent voters, they only pay attention to politics for about four minutes a week and only really pay attention in the months leading up to the election. Biden's team needs to activate voters and send a methodical message, convincing them to make the right choice once a Trump-Biden rematch becomes an inevitable scenario," Messina commented.
Thanh Danh (According to Washington Post, Politico, Guardian)
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