Israeli soldiers near the Gaza Strip in southern Israel on November 22 (Photo: AFP/Getty).
The gunfire will stop, food and medicine will reach those in need, and hostages will be swapped for prisoners. It all looks like the beginning of a ceasefire that will end the brutal six-week war between Hamas and Israel.
But the chances of that happening are almost zero.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear just before his cabinet agreed to the temporary ceasefire. “We are at war and we will continue to be at war,” he said.
Netanyahu’s words disappointed many countries, which had hoped the temporary ceasefire would lead to a more permanent deal.
The US has also called for a ceasefire but knows that fighting is likely to continue. They just want Israel to exercise more restraint to avoid civilian casualties.
Hope for a lasting ceasefire
Israel's campaign to eliminate Hamas has alarmed many countries, especially when more than two-thirds of Gaza's 2.2 million residents were forced to flee their homes and about 14,000 people were killed, according to figures from the Hamas-controlled health authority in Gaza.
Images of Israeli hostages held by Hamas on a wall near the Tel Aviv Museum of Art in Tel Aviv on November 22 (Photo: Bloomberg).
As the two sides have temporarily stopped fighting, some diplomats have expressed hope for something more ambitious.
The US has called for humanitarian pauses but does not expect a quick end to the fighting. The Biden administration’s view is that Israel needs to fight more carefully to defeat Hamas, which could mean a longer war.
Washington has told Israel that the large number of Palestinian civilian deaths will make the campaign to destroy Hamas more difficult, Bloomberg quoted four anonymous senior US officials as saying.
Does not change the situation
Some Israelis have expressed concern that the four-day ceasefire - which began on the morning of November 23 and could be extended further if Hamas releases more hostages - could cause trouble for the Israeli military.
Much of Israeli life is essentially on hold. The country's economy is struggling as hundreds of thousands of men are called up for military service. A few days of quiet could slow the advance of the Israeli army.
Smoke rises after an Israeli attack in northern Gaza on November 22 (Photo: AFP/Getty).
The ceasefire agreement signed in recent days is no different from the one Israel rejected a few weeks ago. But now two new things have happened.
The families of the Israeli hostages have lobbied effectively to make this issue a priority over a military victory. In addition, the Israeli military has made some progress after weeks of air and ground attacks.
Since the Israeli hostages were believed to be victims of the government’s failure to protect its borders and citizens on October 7, Tel Aviv felt that it would be unacceptable to back out of the deal and abandon the hostages again. But then war would break out again.
"Those in power clearly see that they cannot stop," Yakov Amidror, Israel's former national security adviser, told reporters. "The Israeli public will not allow them to do so. If they stop after four, five or six days of ceasefire, that will be the end of the current government."
Mr. Amidror acknowledged that the current lull might allow Hamas to replenish and restore its forces, but that would not change the balance of power or significantly affect Israel's losses.
Even if the ceasefire in Gaza holds, it is unclear how it will affect the exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah on the border with Lebanon. Hezbollah is not a party to the Gaza ceasefire.
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