In its latest newsletter, the MDM (Mekong Hydropower Monitoring Project) warns: The early stages of the 2023 rainy season are much drier than normal in the lower Mekong. If you look at the heat and humidity maps, you can see that most of the lower Mekong basin is much drier than normal over the past 30 years.
Mekong River dry, low flood forecast
Normally, by this time of year (late June) the monsoon rains would have begun to fall across the basin and the Mekong flood pulse would have begun to form, but at present there is no sign of this happening.
According to MDM, natural flow models show a water deficit of up to 30% in Chiang Saen, Thailand, due to upstream Chinese dams storing water. Further downstream, river levels are about 1 meter lower than normal for this time of year due to storage at Chinese dams and low rainfall across the basin.
In the coming weeks, many dams will be storing water due to concerns about El Nino causing inadequate rainfall. This will further affect the natural flow and reduce the flood pulse of the Mekong River. This in turn will have impacts on fisheries and agriculture production across the basin.
The forecast bulletin of the Southern Institute of Water Resources Planning (Siwrp) said: The early-season flood is lower than the average of many years. The main-season flood in the upper Mekong River is only at approximately and lower than the alarm level 1. On the contrary, in the middle and lower Mekong River, due to the influence of high tides, the water level in many places reaches and exceeds the alarm level 3. High tides are especially high in October and November. In addition, in October and November, rainfall will be lower than the average of many years, so there is a risk of a shortage of fresh water for rice production in coastal provinces.
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