The return of President-elect Donald Trump has many implications for the United States and the world in many aspects, from politics - security to economics and development. The Asia - Pacific region, including the Mekong sub-region with its increasingly important geopolitical position, is not outside this influence.
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| Chinese Premier and Mekong leaders attend the 4th Mekong-Lancang Cooperation Summit online in December 2023. (Source: THX) |
The Mekong sub-region includes five Southeast Asian riparian countries: Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, with a population of over 240 million people. The Mekong sub-region has important geopolitical, economic and security values with a rapidly developing and dynamic economy, and is a place that provides abundant food resources, contributing to ensuring food security for the region and the world. However, the sub-regional countries are facing serious challenges regarding the environment, energy, and water resources, affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people living along the Mekong River.
Mekong-US Cooperation: From Initiative to Strategy
Since 2009, cooperation between the US and the subregion has been evident with the establishment of the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) under President Obama, focusing on the fields of environment, health, education, and sustainable development. By 2020, the Trump administration had upgraded the LMI to the Mekong-US Cooperation Framework (MUSP), which emphasizes economic connectivity alongside water security and non-traditional security issues. According to USAID data, from 2009 to 2023, the US has provided a total of 5.8 billion USD for subregional cooperation.
In 2019, the United States and Japan launched the “Mekong Power Partnership” (JUMPP) framework to promote sustainable energy development and regional power market integration in the Mekong subregion. This is an effort to enhance energy security and support the development of high-quality infrastructure. The Trump administration also provided technical assistance and advisory services to Myanmar, helping the country improve the terms of its infrastructure loans to China.[1]
It can be seen that the Trump administration since the previous term has paid attention to the issue of the Mekong sub-region within the overall framework of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy. Under Trump, the US has taken a more assertive approach, prioritizing regional security and economic resilience. MUSP promotes cooperation on high-quality infrastructure, trade, investment, transportation and the green economy. However, MUSP seems to be developed for the purpose of strategic competition rather than pure cooperation. With the prominent “America First” policy stance of the Trump administration, US participation in the region or sub-region needs to bring strategic benefits in competing with the most influential power in the region, China.
China's strategic advantage in the subregion
China shares a geographical border with the Mekong countries, as well as cultural and geographical similarities. In addition, China is the largest trading partner, and also plays an important role in infrastructure development and financing projects for the downstream countries. Located upstream, China has an advantage in controlling water resources – a key factor in regional resource management.
China has established cooperative relations with countries in the subregion early through the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Economic Cooperation framework, which includes five subregional countries and two provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi. The GMS focuses on infrastructure, energy, environment, human resource development, and cross-border trade. Of which, the development of economic corridors is an important element. The North-South and East-West economic corridors are exemplary models for GMS cooperation, connecting transnational economies, contributing to promoting regional trade and investment, connecting remote areas with seaports, airports, and major economic centers. From 2021 to 2024 alone, the GMS has mobilized nearly 133 billion USD to implement more than 500 development projects in the subregion.[2]
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| US Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends the second Mekong-US Partnership (MUSP) Ministerial Meeting online in August 2021. (Photo: Tuan Anh) |
In addition, although it was born later than the US LMI, China’s Mekong-Lancang Cooperation (MLC) has stepped up investment in downstream countries. On March 23, 2016, at the first Mekong-Lancang Summit, China pledged to provide 10 billion yuan in concessional loans and 10 billion USD in credit to the five Mekong countries for infrastructure development and industrial projects. China also pledged 200 million USD in aid to alleviate poverty in the subregion, and provided an additional 300 million USD in funding for small and medium-sized cooperation projects over the next five years.[3]
China's biggest advantage over the US is its location in the upper reaches of the Mekong River, with the ability to control the flow of the river. China's use of water resources, as well as its management and construction of hydroelectric dams, have a direct and significant impact on the water volume in downstream countries. Meanwhile, the difference in interests in building hydroelectric dams and using water resources between upstream countries such as China and Myanmar and downstream countries is increasing.[4] Currently, China is still only participating as a dialogue country with the MRC mechanism, an important initiative in water resource management in the sub-region.
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| The US has established the Mekong-US Partnership (MUSP) framework, which emphasizes economic connectivity alongside water security and non-traditional security issues. |
Prospects for Mekong-US cooperation
Overall, despite the US’s efforts to cooperate and innovate since the previous Trump administration, the US’s resources for the subregion have not been very large. US cooperation with the subregion has been implemented only through ministerial meetings and policy dialogues, but no summits. In the new term, the Trump administration’s resources and support for subregional cooperation are likely to remain the same, not increase.
The strategic competition between the US and China is expected to continue to be complicated in the coming time. The Mekong sub-region is no exception to this competition. With China's "superior" role, the US will still maintain its presence in the sub-region in the overall effort to increase its influence in the Indo-Pacific to counterbalance China. However, the level of US-China competition is becoming more intense in regional hotspots such as the East Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula, making the Mekong issue still behind the US's top strategic priorities.
However, it is not impossible that the subregion could become a space for cooperation between the US and China in areas such as environment, water security, energy transition towards sustainable development goals (SDGs). Although President-elect Donald Trump has a different view on climate change than his predecessors, local-level cooperation, experience exchange, and policy dialogue are still valued and maintained. The US may also continue to promote trilateral cooperation, combining resources with another ally, similar to the JUMPP framework, on environmental issues, livelihoods, energy, water resources, etc.
It is important that sub-regional countries take full advantage of opportunities from all mechanisms and forms of cooperation, strengthen and promote close relations with both the US and China. It is necessary to link sub-regional issues with the SDGs, and proactively integrate them into the ASEAN agenda, linking the interests of mainland countries with those of island countries.
[1] Lindsey W. Ford, "The Trump Administration and the 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific,'" Brookings Institution, May 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-trump-administration-and-the-free-and-open-indo-pacific/.
[2] Tien Dung, "Prime Minister proposes to develop new-generation economic corridor in the Greater Mekong Subregion," VnEconomy, November 7, 2024, https://vneconomy.vn/thu-tuong-de-xuat-phat-trien-hanh-lang-kinh-te-the-he-moi-tai-tieu-vung-mekong-mo-rong.htm
[3] Liu Zhen, "China Pledges Billions to Mekong River Countries in Bid to Boost Influence and Repair Reputation Amid Tensions in South China Sea," South China Morning Post, March 24, 2016, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defense/article/1929881/china-pledges-billions-mekong-river-countries-bid-boost
[4] Vo Thi Minh Le and Nguyen Thi Hong Nga, “Water security in the Greater Mekong Subregion countries: Challenges”, October 15, 2020, https://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/web/guest/hoat-ong-cua-lanh-ao-ang-nha-nuoc/-/2018/819821/view_content#
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/hop-tac-mekong-my-se-ra-sao-khi-tong-thong-dac-cu-donald-trump-tro-lai-nha-trang-294511.html
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