| Coffee price forecast for July 30, 2024: Will the price increase start? Coffee price forecast for July 31, 2024: Adjusted down, the market needs to accumulate for a new increase? |
Coffee prices on August 1, 2024, in the domestic market, are forecast to increase slightly. Since the beginning of the year, the Vietnamese agricultural market has recorded many positive changes. According to a report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the first half of the year, the turnover of the main agricultural products reached 15.76 billion USD, an increase of 24.4% over the same period last year. Of which, 7 products and product groups exceeded the 1 billion USD mark, including coffee, rubber, rice, vegetables and cashew nuts.
Coffee is the most prominent product with a remarkable growth rate. In the first 6 months of the year, Vietnam exported 902,000 tons of coffee, reaching a turnover of 3.22 billion USD. Although the export volume decreased by 10.5%, the value increased by 34.6% thanks to the coffee price increasing by 80% compared to the same period last year. With high prices and world market demand, this year's coffee export is expected to break last year's record.
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| Coffee price forecast August 1, 2024: Will coffee prices rise again? |
In the domestic market, domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on July 31, 2024 as follows: According to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices decreased slightly by 500 VND compared to yesterday, ranging from 123,000 to 123,600 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 123,400 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 123,600 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 123,300 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 123,200 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province, coffee is purchased at 123,300 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 123,600 VND/kg.
The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 123,000 VND/kg.
Coffee prices today, July 31, in Dak Lak province decreased slightly by 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday; in Cu M'gar district, coffee was purchased at about 123,400 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 123,300 VND/kg.
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| London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
Updated world coffee prices at 20:45 on July 31, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 4,242 USD/ton, down 24 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for November 2024 was 4,099 USD/ton, down 19 USD; the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,950 USD/ton, down 19 USD and the delivery term for March 2025 was 3,827 USD/ton, down 16 USD.
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| New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:45 on July 31, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 225.55 - 230.30 cents/lb.
Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 230.30 cents/lb; down 0.50 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 229.05 cents/lb, down 0.55 cents/lb; the March 2025 delivery period is 227.70 cents/lb, down 0.60 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 225.55 cents/lb, down 0.65 cents/lb.
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| Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:45 on July 31, 2024 increased slightly. Specifically, the delivery period for September 2024 is 290.00 USD/ton, up 0.47%; the delivery period for December 2024 is 283.80 USD/ton (up 0.41%); the delivery period for March 2025 is 278.45 USD/ton (up 0.07%) and the delivery period for May 2025 is 275.05 USD/ton.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.
Favorable weather conditions in the Central Highlands of Vietnam and Brazil are easing concerns about next-season output. Brazil’s fast-paced harvest and rising inventories on both exchanges are also factors that have kept coffee prices flat.
Technically, both London and New York markets are currently in a cyclical downtrend and are in the midst of liquidating long positions by major market players. Over the past two weeks, major market players have been selling heavily to close out their long positions. This is the reason for the recent downtrend in both markets.
As of July 23, the latest COT Report on traders’ positions from the New York market showed that non-commercial speculators reduced their net long positions by 8.63%, registering a net long position of 43,725 lots. In the London Robusta coffee market, fund managers also reduced their net long positions by 3.10% to register a net long position of 36,640 lots, equivalent to 6,106,667 bags.
In terms of the main supply in the current market, the agricultural financial advisory group Safras & Mercado estimates that nearly 81% of the new Brazilian coffee crop has been harvested, as of July 23. This year's harvest is coming faster than the same period last year, which was reported to be about 74%. Based on this forecast, the new crop is 66.04 million bags, of which about 53.49 million bags have been harvested so far, of which about 19.67 million bags are Conilon Robusta, reported to be 95% complete, and about 33.98 million bags are Arabica, which is 75% complete.
* Information for reference only
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