At this event organized by the Institute of Economics and Finance (Academy of Finance) and the Department of Price Management (Ministry of Finance), Dr. Nguyen Duc Do, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance (Academy of Finance), commented: In addition to factors related to currency and exchange rates, inflation in 2025 also depends on other factors such as world economic growth and oil prices and input material prices. According to forecasts from international organizations, the world economy in 2025 will still grow steadily at 3.2%, equivalent to 2024, while oil prices and prices of basic input goods, on average, tend to decrease slightly. However, exchange rates and interest rates will be uncertain factors and will affect prices in Vietnam.
“With a stable and reasonable monetary and exchange rate policy, Vietnam has controlled inflation at below 4% over the past decade. In 2025, it is likely that average inflation will continue to be controlled at 3% (+/- 0.5%), much lower than the target of 4-4.5% approved by the National Assembly,” said Dr. Nguyen Duc Do.
According to the Price Management Department (Ministry of Finance), the factors that put pressure on the price level in 2025 are the forecast that the world situation in 2025 and the region will continue to develop rapidly, complicatedly, and unpredictably. Countries will have certain policy adjustments according to the general situation... From there, it will affect the price fluctuations of strategic commodities in the world. At the same time, there is pressure from the implementation of the market roadmap for State-managed commodities that has been delayed in the past. The exchange rate between VND and USD remains high, increasing the cost of importing raw materials and fuel, the risk of natural disasters, storms and floods, unfavorable weather for production, and high consumer demand during holidays and Tet.
In 2025, price management and operation will face challenges and pressures from the market and prices of essential goods and services such as fuel prices, construction material prices, food, beverages, clothing, equipment and household appliances; electricity prices, medical examination and treatment service prices, etc.
In addition, the Price Management Department said there will be a number of factors that help reduce pressure on price levels such as global inflation cooling down, helping Vietnam reduce pressure from inflationary import channels, while also helping improve psychological factors, expectations, and supporting inflation control.
Along with that, Vietnam has abundant food and foodstuff resources, meeting domestic consumption and export needs, tuition fees for the 2024-2025 school year and the following years for public preschools and general education will continue to remain stable according to the provisions of Decree No. 97/2023/ND-CP of the Government, thus not affecting the CPI index in 2025. Some tax support policies continue to be implemented such as support for reducing environmental tax on gasoline and oil, reducing VAT, contributing to reducing costs of forming prices of goods and services.
In particular, the Government's policy of stabilizing the macro economy and controlling inflation in recent years will help strengthen the confidence of businesses and people in a stable macro-economic environment, thereby helping to stabilize inflation expectations.
To carry out the tasks set by the National Assembly, the Price Management Department said that price management and operation in 2025 must ensure good control of inflation; continue to support the removal of difficulties for production, business and people's lives. At the same time, continue to implement the roadmap for market prices of public services and goods managed by the State when conditions permit and promote the organization and implementation of the legal system on prices to ensure that price management policies take effect and are effective from July 1, 2024 according to the 2023 Price Law.
In addition, proactively monitor closely the price developments of strategic commodities in the world market, developments in the world economic situation and geopolitical tensions, promptly warn of risks affecting domestic price levels, proactively implement within authority or propose and advise competent authorities on appropriate, flexible and timely measures, solutions and response scenarios, striving to control average inflation in 2025 according to the target set by the National Assembly.
The Ministry of Finance also continues to review and implement the roadmap for adjusting public service prices according to the market roadmap and State-managed goods according to market principles; conduct assessments and carefully calculate impacts to avoid causing major disruptions to price levels, greatly affecting people's lives, ensuring the goal of controlling inflation. In addition, effectively deploy and monitor the implementation of price declaration and price posting measures; publicize price information.
“In particular, widely inform the public before adjusting prices of State-managed goods to avoid inaccurate information that causes public confusion. Publicly and transparently disclose information on prices and price management by the Government, the Price Management Steering Committee, ministries, branches and localities to control expected inflation,” said the Price Management Department.
According to economist Ngo Tri Long, to control the CPI in 2025, it is necessary to control the prices of items such as gasoline, electricity, food, and medicine to avoid sudden price increases. National reserves for intervention when necessary, controlling the prices of strategic items helps reduce pressure on the CPI, but it is necessary to balance so as not to reduce the investment motivation of businesses.
At the same time, promoting domestic production and supply chains, increasing support for domestic goods manufacturing enterprises to reduce dependence on imports, investing in agricultural development and processing industry to ensure stable supply, reducing dependence on imports will reduce the risk of inflation due to increased exchange rates and international prices. However, it takes time and resources to improve production capacity.
Mr. Ngo Tri Long emphasized: The synchronous implementation of the above solutions aims to control inflation, stabilize the macro economy, and create favorable conditions for sustainable economic growth in 2025. The above measures are capable of effectively controlling CPI if implemented synchronously and in accordance with the actual situation. However, some measures such as price control or interest rate increase can put pressure on businesses and slow down economic growth.
According to data from the General Statistics Office, GDP in 2024 increased by 7.09% compared to 2023. For the whole year of 2024, CPI increased by 3.63%, reaching the target set by the National Assembly. Thus, in 2024, Vietnam's economic growth is quite high, along with salary increases, but inflation is low.
Explaining the above issue, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong, former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that due to low world price increases, world inflation decreased, reducing inflationary pressure from outside. Although GDP growth is high, domestic demand is still low (the lowest since 2022) because people tighten spending.
Food prices will not increase (except for a short period after Typhoon Yagi in September 2024) because Vietnam is a large agricultural producer with abundant resources. Energy prices (electricity, coal, gasoline, oil) are managed and regulated by the State.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Oanh, Director of the Price Statistics Department (General Statistics Office) commented that inflation is low because in a difficult context, to maintain competitiveness, businesses reduce profits by not increasing prices of goods.
Along with that, the policy of tax and fee exemption and reduction to support businesses and people has helped reduce inflationary pressure. In addition, inflation control depends largely on the Government's careful management of prices of goods and services managed by the State; monetary policy is flexibly managed.
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/tin-tuc/du-bao-lam-phat-nam-2025-se-duoc-kiem-soat-o-muc-tu-3-4-5/20250109083815560
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