can withstand adjustment pressure, test the 1,300 zone

In the short term, SHS experts believe that the VN-index is not at an attractive price range for further disbursement.

Stock market perspective in the last week of March 2025: may face correction pressure, testing the 1,300 zone

In the short term, SHS experts believe that the VN-index is not at an attractive price range for further disbursement.

After 8 weeks of increasing from 1,220 points to the price range of 1,350 points. VN-Index began to differentiate strongly. Under pressure of adjustment, many groups of stocks had a good period of price increase, similar to VN-Index. At the same time, the recovery was quite good in groups of stocks that had decreased sharply such as telecommunications technology.

VN-index is breaking its strong upward trend when ending the week down -0.32% to 1,321.88 points. VN30 decreased -0.63% to 1,378.27 points, under correction pressure when encountering strong resistance around 1,400 points, remaining above the highest price range in October 2024 around 1,374 points.

Market breadth is quite negatively differentiated. The number of codes and industry groups decreased overwhelmingly, in the steel, retail, insurance, chemical, agricultural industries... Many codes decreased sharply with sudden volume, showing short-term distribution pressure, stop-loss selling in many codes. Good recovery in the port, construction, oil and gas groups...

Market liquidity decreased, the decrease was quite strong in the real estate and securities groups, while the increase was strong in the banking group with sudden transactions of foreign investors. Foreign investors continued the strong net selling trend on HOSE with a value of -3,992.6 billion VND this week.

The highlight of last week was still the gold price continuously surpassing the peak, along with the liquidity of the stock market in the last two sessions of the week somewhat lacking, many investors are concerned about the possibility that speculative cash flow may shift from stocks to physical gold.

According to Mr. Le Duc Huy, Head of Market Strategy Department, Agrbank Securities Joint Stock Company, this can happen because this trend has actually happened in the US, so it is normal if it happens in Vietnam. However, for gold investors with a very short holding period, I think the risk is high because the difference between buying and selling prices is often quite large during the period of hot gold prices. Therefore, if there is no available goods or there is no reasonable allocation plan, avoid moving back and forth between markets to minimize risks during the reinvestment process.

Mr. Huy said that the uptrend is slowing down when the market has continuously decreased for 4 sessions and retreated to the MA20-day support around 1,320. Liquidity gradually decreased towards the end of the week, showing that the selling pressure is not too great, which is expected to help the market have a short recovery in the first session of the week. However, investors should limit disbursement too early in the morning because the rapid increase in liquidity at thin supports can be a signal to trigger a surge in selling momentum. Therefore, it is necessary to consider when implementing T+ positions at the present time.

According to SHS Securities experts, VN-Index is still maintaining short-term growth with the nearest support zone of 1,315 points, stronger support at 1,300 points. VN-Index may be under pressure to correct, retesting the psychological support zone around 1,300 points if it fails to maintain the nearest support zone around 1,315 points, equivalent to the average price of the current 20 sessions. The market has been under strong selling pressure, restructuring portfolios in many stocks after a period of price increase lasting for the past 7-8 weeks. Especially when VN-Index, VN30 encounter very strong resistance zones of 1,350 points, 1,400 points.

In the short term, SHS experts believe that with the VN-index, this is not an attractive price range for further disbursement. Although the VN-index is under relatively normal adjustment pressure under the influence of the rotation of many groups of codes in the market. However, many groups of codes have been under strong selling pressure, have been adjusting for a long time to relatively attractive price ranges and are gradually starting to rebalance, such as technology, telecommunications, logistics, insurance groups... SHS believes that many codes are returning to relatively reasonable price ranges, and can be gradually monitored and considered for accumulation again. Positions that increase the proportion need to be carefully selected and carefully evaluated based on the business results of the first quarter of 2025.

According to Mr. Huy, the market is maintaining a medium-term uptrend because the trend support point is the 1,280-1,300 zone which is still being maintained. However, in the short term, the market is facing short-term adjustment pressure because demand is slowing down due to the information gap. In early April, the market will welcome a series of important events related to: (1) The results of the US tax on the markets expected to be announced on April 2; (2) The results of the FTSE Russell market upgrade 1 week later; (3) The AGM of listed companies spread around April.

These are all events that have a large and multi-dimensional impact on the market, while the possibility of positive scenarios occurring at the same time is low, so Mr. Huy believes that this will be a period of slight but still healthy market adjustment, stocks will have certain differentiation and accumulation instead of continuing to explode like the beginning of the year.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-cuoi-thang-32025-co-the-chiu-ap-luc-dieu-chinh-kiem-tra-vung-1300-d258063.html