Iowa victory - Trump's amazing comeback

Chiến thắng ở Iowa - sự trở lại đáng kinh ngạc của ông Trump - 1 — Former US President Donald Trump at a campaign event (Photo: AFP).

One-term presidents almost never succeed in the primary campaigns of subsequent elections, much less produce resounding victories to demonstrate their power within the Republican Party.

Yet Mr Trump is doing just that. By winning 50% of the vote and notching the biggest victory in caucus primary history, Mr Trump is on track to secure his third consecutive Republican nomination. His victory shows that eight years after taking office in 2016, the Republican Party is still very much his party.

"The big night is coming in November, when we take our country back," Mr Trump said at his first proper victory party since his election in 2016. Crowds wearing MAGA hats greeted him with chants of "Trump, Trump, Trump" beneath two giant screens reading "Trump wins Iowa!"

But the former president’s comeback is even more remarkable for another reason. He has prevailed despite 91 criminal charges and other legal entanglements that have threatened his liberty and fortune. Most recently, he appeared in court in Manhattan on the morning of January 16 for the opening of his libel trial involving the writer E. Jean Carroll.

The results of the January 15 Iowa primary also raised big questions for Mr. Trump’s opponents. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in second place, narrowly ahead of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. The result does not give Mr. DeSantis much hope of winning the nomination, but at least it could give him a reason to continue his campaign.

Haley finished third, but she is most focused on next week’s New Hampshire primary, hoping that moderate Republicans will help her win an early victory over Trump. But the Iowa electoral map also shows the difficulty she faces. In rural areas, where most Republicans live, she has made little impact.

While there is a significant number of Republicans who do not support Mr. Trump and could be an opportunity for Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis, it is unclear whether that segment of the electorate is large enough to defeat the former president, even if one of them could become the sole alternative to Mr. Trump.

Although Mr. Trump appeared to be moderate toward his opponents in his victory speech, his campaign will mainly be aimed at increasing pressure to force them to leave the race, from which he can focus his support to confront the Democratic candidate, incumbent President Joe Biden.

Iowa is just one of the states in the nominating process. The caucuses represent a small percentage of the state’s population. But Mr. Trump’s influence with rural voters in the state reflects his support in suburbs across the country. Polls suggest his victory here could be replicated in most Republican strongholds across the country.

Barring some unforeseen event, Mr Trump’s dominance in Iowa shows how difficult it will be for any of his remaining rivals to stop him from clinching the Republican nomination.

Recent polls also show him highly competitive, even leading Mr. Biden in some battleground states that will decide the election outcome.