According to experts, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2025 is completely controllable and will fluctuate between 4 and 4.5%.
Flexible price management policy helps CPI reach target in 2024
According to data from the General Statistics Office, Consumer price index The average CPI in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 2.87% over the same period last year. The average CPI in 2024 increased by 3.63% over 2023, achieving the target set by the National Assembly.
Speaking to reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong - former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade) assessed that the low CPI increase in 2024 was due to low world price increases, low world inflation, and reduced inflationary pressure from outside. Despite high GDP growth, domestic demand remains low (the lowest since 2022) due to people tightening spending. At the same time, food prices did not increase (except for a short time after Typhoon Yagi in September 2024) because Vietnam is a large agricultural producer with abundant supply.
In addition, this expert highly appreciated the State's price management measures. In 2024, energy prices (electricity, coal, gasoline) will be managed and regulated by the State. The Government has persistently implemented policies to control inflation and stabilize the macro economy. Therefore, from 2014 to present, Vietnam has continuously maintained low inflation (below 4%). Vietnam's macroeconomic indicators are quite stable (high foreign exchange reserves, trade surplus, low public debt to GDP), helping to reduce inflationary pressure.
According to experts, in 2024, the prices of state-priced goods were carefully managed: medical service prices remained unchanged; electricity prices were adjusted once; tuition fees were kept the same as last year... Good control of these price items has contributed significantly to curbing inflation. In addition, policies on adjusting taxes and fees, and monetary policies also contribute to the overall management goal. In addition, another objective point is that the cooling of world inflation also helps to cool down imported inflation, contributing to the overall results.
CPI target for 2025 is achievable
Sharing about the factors affecting economic growth as well as the target of controlling CPI in 2025, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong said that in the world, inflation in many major economies tends to decrease. In addition, many central banks are gradually lowering interest rates, the world economy is gradually recovering, and world demand is recovering slightly. This will contribute to increasing the demand for imported goods and Vietnam - one of the major exporting countries in the world will benefit.
However, risks also come when global inflation is falling while there is still a potential risk of rising again. Conflict hotspots have not cooled down, even increasing. The protectionist policies of the Trump 2.0 administration are expected to greatly impact Vietnam's import and export activities as this is the largest market for Vietnamese goods. Increasingly severe climate change also puts pressure on prices, especially for agricultural products.
Domestically, the Government has just raised the GDP growth target for 2025 to "over double digits" (over 10%). To achieve this target, many solutions to boost production and stimulate consumption will be implemented. In addition, after a period of stability to ensure the macro economy, the prices of medical and educational services are expected to increase according to the roadmap. Energy prices (gasoline, electricity, coal) may continue to increase.
“Based on favorable and unfavorable factors in the world and domestically affecting inflation, the average CPI forecast for 2025 is from 4.2% - 4.5% (if no sudden factors occur), both ensuring the GDP growth target and not increasing beyond the target allowed by the National Assembly (increase not exceeding 4.5%)” - Dr. Le Quoc Phuong expressed his opinion.
Agreeing, according to Associate Professor, Dr. Ngo Tri Long, an economic expert, inflation in Vietnam in 2025 will be controlled at a reasonable level, fluctuating between 3.5-4.5%. This reflects the efforts of the Government and relevant agencies in maintaining macroeconomic stability and controlling prices. In particular, close monitoring and timely policy adjustments are necessary to ensure the target of controlling inflation in 2025.
Previously, at the Executive Board meeting domestic market The fourth quarter of 2024 took place on January 7, 2025, in Hanoi. Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan - Head of the Domestic Market Management Team said that in 2024, all indicators were achieved, of which CPI reached 3.63% (the ceiling is 4.5%). However, if CPI is kept too low, it is not good either.
“In 2025, on the momentum of 2024, there is an opportunity to accelerate and break through to achieve economic goals. Therefore, the work of market management and advisory must also be calculated flexibly. It is possible to push the CPI scenario closer to the index allowed by the National Assembly of 4.5% to both ensure macroeconomic stability and create conditions for growth,” Deputy Minister Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan emphasized. At the same time, he said that not only in 2025 but also in the following years, the Party and State leaders have declared double-digit growth, so the work of market management and advisory must be promptly adjusted to adapt to the market.
Source
Comment (0)