VPBanks Securities experts said that the low increase in deposits compared to credit is because people tend to withdraw deposits to buy gold, real estate, and investment channels with higher profitability when deposit interest rates are low.
Data General Statistics Office just announced, by September 27, 2024, capital mobilization of credit institutions increased by 4.79% (same period last year increased by 6.63%); credit growth was 8.53% (same period increased by 6.24%).
What do you see when credit growth is nearly double capital mobilization?
This trend has continued since the first half of this year, when financial reports of many banks showed loan growth exceeding mobilization.
For example, Vietcombank's outstanding loans to customers increased by 7.8% in the first half of this year, equivalent to VND99,300 billion disbursed.
Deposit mobilization at Vietcombank decreased by 1.5%, to more than 1.37 million billion VND compared to 1.39 million billion VND at the beginning of this year. Many other banks also had customer loans growing faster than mobilization.
According to VPBanks Securities experts, the low increase in mobilization is due to people's tendency to withdraw money to buy gold. real estate or other investment channels with higher profitability when deposit interest rates are low. Especially Big4 banks with low interest rates have a huge effect.
By the end of September, the average 12-month interest rate of the regular banking group had increased by 13 basis points compared to the beginning of the year to 5%, while the interest rate of the state-owned group remained unchanged at 4.7%, 26 basis points lower than the beginning of the year.
To compensate for liquidity, VPBanks experts said that banks tend to mobilize capital in the second market and many other channels. Such as foreign syndicated loans, selling strategic capital, issuing bonds, using tools to issue valuable papers, etc.
With deposit interest rates gradually increasing again, the gold market being tightened, the real estate market in the observation phase along with the gloomy stock market, VPBanks experts believe that these will be factors that promote deposit mobilization to increase again.
Why money does not flow into stocks?
At the beginning of the year, many units predicted that with low deposit interest rates, stock will benefit when money is withdrawn from banks and poured in more actively.
However, in the first half of the year, VN-Index had better liquidity but then entered a period of adjustment and accumulation, causing frustration for many investors.
Talk to PV , Mr. Do Bao Ngoc - Deputy General Director of Vietnam Construction Securities - said that stock liquidity has decreased in the last 4 consecutive months.
Data shows that the average trading value per session in September was just over VND13,500 billion, the lowest level in nearly a year.
Meanwhile, looking at the real estate or gold market, prices have increased sharply, bringing a more "FOMO" effect to many investors. In particular, the apartment fever has made many customers "impatient" because they are worried about the price increase every day. These are factors, according to Mr. Ngoc, that have contributed to affecting the psychology of the stock market in recent times.
Recently, the liquidity of the stock market has improved with many sessions exceeding VND20,000 billion, according to Mr. Ngoc. Domestic cash flow is facing new choices when the domestic real estate and gold markets have been pushed to too high a price level. The attractiveness of speculation has also decreased.
"While the stock market has better growth expectations when the economy recovers more clearly and grows higher," Mr. Ngoc commented.
Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien - Director of Analysis at MB Securities (MBS) - also believes that the allocation to each investment channel will depend on each person's risk appetite and investment goals. For investors who need high liquidity, it is clear that securities are the channel of choice.
Are banks worried about "lack of money"? In the context of pressure on falling exchange rates, MB Securities (MBS) said that the State Bank is continuing to actively support the banking system in September, aiming to lower interbank interest rates. As of September 30, the total net value of money pumped into the system by the State Bank is estimated at VND128,200 billion with an interest rate of 4 - 4.25%, term of 7 days. The State Treasury also announced the need to buy foreign currency from commercial banks with an expected maximum volume of 350 million USD this month. This move will help increase system liquidity. According to MBS experts, the trend of increasing deposit interest rates continued to slow down in September, when only a few banks increased interest rates by 0.1 - 0.5%, showing that the system's liquidity was quite abundant in the first few weeks of the month. However, the severe damage caused by Typhoon Yagi has caused many businesses to lose their ability to repay their debts, which may increase bad debt pressure. This is a factor that encourages banks to continue to adjust their deposit interest rates to attract new capital, thereby helping to ensure liquidity, according to MBS. MBS forecasts that input interest rates will increase slightly by 20 basis points by the end of the year in the context of recovering credit growth, putting pressure on system liquidity. |
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