According to news.com.au, the US is tailoring its submarines to suit its own specific needs, not Australia’s. The information comes after the Congressional Research Service recently released a report on the Navy’s procurement of Virginia-class SSNs. The report highlighted questions that the US has yet to address, including whether the US can meet its and Australia’s submarine needs, as well as the risks of providing Canberra with this technology.
Virginia-class SSN
US worries about declining forces
The report states that selling 3-5 Virginia-class SSNs to Australia would reduce the size of the US Navy's submarine fleet. The current 49 submarines would fall to 46 by 2028. Meanwhile, current production programs would only increase that number to 60 by 2052, still not enough for the US to meet its goal of maintaining a minimum of 66 SSNs, according to news.com.au.
As a result, there have been concerns that the deal will weaken the US’s ability to counter China. The report suggests that the US is also concerned that it could “completely lose” the submarines it is transferring to Australia if Canberra does not support the US in a potential conflict. This speculation comes after Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles said in March that the country had “absolutely not” promised to support the US, when asked about Taiwan.
Analysts also warn that the conflict in Ukraine could lead Russia to exchange more military technology, especially in the field of submarines, with China, posing a greater challenge to the US. Although this could be solved by increasing the number of submarines produced each year, the report says no additional orders have been placed. The US has only two shipyards capable of building SSNs.
President Biden praises AUKUS trilateral deal that will give Australia nuclear submarines
Many issues for Australia
One issue for Australia is financial. It is expected to pay more to buy Virginia-class SSNs from the US, as Washington is looking to build a larger version of the submarine. While this would ensure the submarines can carry more Tomahawk cruise missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), it would also increase their cost.
AUKUS successfully tested AI UAV
Recently, the US military website Defense New reported that AUKUS has successfully tested the first UAV powered by artificial intelligence (AI). Although it was conducted on April 28, the test was not publicly announced until May 26. This is part of AUKUS's project to accelerate the joint development of key technologies such as AI and their application in the military field.
According to the UK Ministry of Defence, the trial allows AUKUS partners to work together to promote a shared understanding of AI to ensure security and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Australia could offset the cost by leasing additional bases to the US and UK. However, the US Navy has proposed other modifications to the Virginia-class SSNs, including optimizing them for undersea sabotage of infrastructure such as submarine cables, and reducing their offensive role, which Australia wants.
In addition, Australia itself is facing a human resource problem. According to The Strategist magazine, unless Australia can develop a highly skilled workforce, it will be difficult for the country to achieve the advanced defense capabilities outlined in the AUKUS (US-UK-Australia) treaty agreement. Accordingly, to support AUKUS and maintain its strength in advanced technology, Australia needs to encourage and retain talent amid the global shortage of human resources.
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