The brutal escalation

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ attack on Israel with missiles and drones marked the first time Iran has launched a direct military attack on Israeli territory. Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, both Israel and Iran have considered each other as arch-rivals, but the two countries have only fought proxy wars rather than direct conflict.

In a statement posted on the social network X, Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations said the attack was a direct response to the attack on the Iranian Consulate in Syria on April 1. Almost simultaneously with Iran's attack, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets at an Israeli military site in the Golan Heights. Yemen's Houthi rebels also joined in the rocket attack on Israeli territory.

The attack in the early morning of April 14 (Vietnam time) can be considered Iran's "declaration of war" against the US and Israel. Immediately after the attack was carried out, on page X, Iran warned: "This is a conflict between Iran and the rogue regime of Israel, which the US MUST STAY AWAY FROM!"

Before April 1, observers still hoped that a direct war between Iran and its allies, Israel and the United States would not take place because Iran was not well prepared militarily for such a war because the country was still under Western sanctions.

There is also a strong internal opposition to the Iranian regime, which was demonstrated by the massive protest movement in 2022. However, with the recent retaliation between Iran and Israel, those predictions have changed. Iran's actions have pushed the Middle East region closer to the brink of a widespread war that no one wants. This is truly a nightmare that the US, the Arab countries, and even Hezbollah - have tried to avoid all this time.

Israel's war in the Gaza Strip has sparked protests from many countries around the world. Even the United States - Israel's long-standing and important ally - has expressed its dissatisfaction, especially when Israel is isolated by accusations of violating international humanitarian law against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip. However, Israel is making its own calculations. Internal pressure makes it impossible for Netanyahu to stop. In addition, this is also a good opportunity for Israel to use as an excuse to find a way to permanently eliminate the nuclear threat from Iran that Israel and the United States have long feared.

In a speech to the Israeli people on April 13, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “We have established a clear principle: Whoever harms us, we will harm them. We will defend ourselves against any threat and will act calmly and resolutely.”

Therefore, many people are concerned that the initial retaliation will spark a full-scale war between Iran and Israel. This would be a nightmare scenario, causing serious damage to both sides, possibly dragging the US and UK into the conflict. The US has repeatedly stated that it wants to withdraw US forces from the Middle East and move them to the Indo-Pacific region and Europe. Israel is well aware of this move and feels it must act quickly while there is a strong US presence. Therefore, the attack in the early morning of April 14 is a new starting point.

The Middle East, already in a state of disarray since Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, will now be in even worse shape on all fronts. And the world must be “very alert to the real danger of a catastrophic escalation across the region,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.

MSc. HOANG VIET

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