Covid-19 vaccine against new Eris variant coming soon

A new Covid-19 vaccine, an updated vaccine to protect against the new Covid-19 variant EG.5 (Eris), is set to be rolled out next month, but health experts say it will not be well received despite the Eris variant, a variant of the Omicron coronavirus, continuing to cause hospitalizations in the United States.

Some public health experts expect Americans to receive the new Covid-19 vaccine in the same way they would receive a flu shot, but demand has fallen sharply since 2021, when Covid-19 vaccines became widely available and 240 million Americans, or 73% of the population, have received at least one shot.

By the fall of 2022, when most Americans will have had Covid-19 or been vaccinated, fewer than 50 million people will have signed up for a vaccine.

Health care providers and pharmacies like CVS Health will begin offering the new vaccine next month, which will help protect against the Omicron variant of the virus that has been prevalent since 2022.

They will battle growing concerns about the virus, as well as fatigue and skepticism about the value of the new vaccine, said Ashley Kirzinger, director of survey methods at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

“If public health officials want the majority of adults in the United States to get these annual shots, they will have to convince the American public that Covid is not over and is still dangerous.”

In the KFF survey, the biggest reason vaccinated people gave for skipping the annual shot was because they believed they were still protected from Covid thanks to antibodies from previous shots or from recovering from Covid.

COVID-19 vaccine makers have also tempered expectations for their vaccination campaigns this fall. Pfizer, the largest mRNA vaccine maker with BioNTech, recently warned it could have to cut jobs if it doesn’t work. Its biggest rival, Moderna, has acknowledged demand could be as low as 50 million doses.

Last year, Pfizer and Moderna vaccine sales reached $56 billion worldwide; this year, analysts predict only about $20 billion.

Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said he doesn't expect the two companies' fall campaigns this year to reach the same level of success as fall 2022.

“Look at what happened in the winter of 2022. Fifty million doses were administered in the United States, and this fall it could be even lower, because there is less anxiety in the community this year than last year.”

Vaccines in the post-pandemic era

The Covid-19 emergency ended in May, and the US government has largely outsourced vaccinations to the private sector. More than 1.1 million people in the US have died from Covid-19, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

CDC Director Mandy Cohen hopes the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will authorize and the CDC will recommend the new vaccine be rolled out by the third or fourth week of September. She suggested Americans should consider these shots as an annual measure to protect themselves, just like getting a flu shot every year.

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Novavax have all designed their Covid-19 vaccine versions to target the variant they believe will start circulating this fall. The vaccines are targeted at the XBB1.5 subtype, a subtype similar to EG.5 and a subtype of the current dominant Omicron variant.

Hospitalizations related to Covid-19 have increased more than 40% from a recent low reached in June, but remain 90% below the peak reached during the Omicron outbreak in January 2022, according to CDC data.

And the actual evidence

Some doctors suggest annual vaccinations for older adults and other high-risk people, who are more likely to have serious consequences if they get Covid-19.

The ACIP may recommend a lower dose for young and healthy people, said William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University and an adviser to the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). The decision could also affect demand for the vaccine.

“Do children really need this additional shot? Do young people without underlying conditions need this additional shot? Or should this series of vaccines be recommended for a more specific group of citizens?”

Professor David Boulware, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota, said that based on a study he published, people who got the booster shot when they were infected had milder and shorter-lasting symptoms.

“If you want to know how to reduce the length of illness when you are infected, then booster shots are the best approach.”

Nguyen Quang Minh (according to Reuters)

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