Vietnam's export turnover has exceeded 400 billion USD. In the context of increasing trade protectionism in many major markets, it is predicted that by 2025, Vietnamese goods will face more and more complicated trade defense lawsuits.
Vietnam's export turnover has exceeded 400 billion USD. In the context of increasing trade protectionism in many major markets, it is predicted that by 2025, Vietnamese goods will face more and more complicated trade defense lawsuits.
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| Fiber is one of Vietnam's export products that will be subject to a trade defense investigation in 2024. Photo: d.t |
Increased in number and complexity
With a total of 32 cases of investigation initiated into Vietnam's export goods in 2024, on average, there are more than 2.6 new cases per month. The products initiated for investigation are items with an export value of billions of USD, such as solar panels, iron, steel, fibers, etc., but there are also items with an export value of only a few million USD, such as paper plates, capsule shells, etc.
According to the Department of Trade Defense (Ministry of Industry and Trade), 2024 will see trade defense investigations not only increase in number (more than double that of 2023), but also become more complex, as many countries investigate unprecedented new content. Specifically, the US investigates cross-border subsidies on solar panels and capsule shells; Canada conducts its first anti-circumvention investigation with a country...
Enterprises should prioritize using raw materials from domestic sources or from markets that are not subject to defense investigations to reduce the risk of being subject to anti-circumvention taxes. 
- Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, Commercial Counselor, Head of Vietnam Trade Office in the US
The number of “dual” investigations (both anti-dumping, anti-subsidy or self-defense) has also increased and the market has appeared for the first time to initiate lawsuits against imported goods from Vietnam (South Africa initiated a tax evasion investigation on car, bus and truck tires)...
The US, India, Canada and Indonesia are the four markets with the highest tendency to conduct trade defense investigations against Vietnam in the past year. Of which, the US is one of the WTO member countries that conducts the most trade defense investigations against Vietnam's export goods. In 2024 alone, the US initiated 11 new cases.
Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, Trade Counselor, Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US, said: “Exports to the US have increased, but defense cases are also proportional to export turnover. The new point is that the US simultaneously applies both anti-dumping and subsidy investigations, even including new factors, such as cross-border subsidy calculation, labor and environmental regulations.”
Trade defense cases in the US have increased due to many factors, such as Vietnam's large trade surplus with the US; Vietnamese goods increasingly dominate the market thanks to competitive prices and improved quality, causing conflicts of interest with domestic manufacturers in the import market. In addition, there is also a strong increase in US protectionist policies, focusing on protecting domestic production and domestic labor.
In the context of increasingly deep international economic integration, increasing trade defense has negatively affected the manufacturing industry. Vietnamese export enterprises face many difficulties in pursuing lawsuits, losing a lot of time, opportunity costs and money.
Mr. Pham Cong Toan, Deputy Director of the Department of Industry and Trade of Bac Giang, shared that the solar battery manufacturing industry in this locality is facing many difficulties due to the consequences of trade defense cases.
Bac Giang currently has 14 enterprises with 100% foreign direct investment, with a large total investment, disbursed capital alone reaching more than 2 billion USD. In 2023, the solar panel sector contributed more than 7 billion USD to the total industrial production value of Bac Giang province, but in 2024 it decreased sharply, to only about 4 - 5 billion USD.
“From 2021 until now, we have encountered many difficulties in trade defense cases, with some businesses reducing production by more than 50%,” said Mr. Toan.
It should be added that solar panels are also a rare export item in Vietnam that is related to all trade defense measures applied by the US, including anti-dumping, anti-subsidy, self-defense, and evasion of trade defense measures investigations.
Be proactive to deal effectively
Faced with the trend of protecting domestic production and increasing the application of technical barriers and defense tariffs, in 2025, Vietnamese exported goods will face more new-generation defense lawsuits that are more complicated, costly and dangerous in many markets, typically the US.
According to the early warning list, some product lines with high risks of being investigated for trade defense are plywood, wooden cabinets, anti-corrosion steel, hot-rolled steel, prestressed steel cables, welded steel pipes, aluminum profiles, copper pipes, float glass, PET plastic...
Mr. Trinh Anh Tuan, Director of the Department of Trade Defense, warned: "Enterprises exporting the above-mentioned products need to increase monitoring, learn about the trade defense investigation regulations of the importing country and closely coordinate with the authorities to effectively deal with these risks."
After exporting nearly $406 billion in 2024, Vietnam is targeting export growth of about 12% this year, meaning export turnover will exceed $450 billion. As exports increase, defense cases are sure to increase sharply.
Processing and manufacturing industries such as textiles, footwear, electronics, machinery and equipment from Vietnam with large export turnover to the US need to pay close attention to trade defense measures. Because, although the export turnover is large, the participation rate of Vietnam in the value chain is still low, and input materials must be imported in large quantities.
Increasing the use of domestic raw materials, diversifying inputs, and making origins transparent will help export industries be sustainable and minimize risks. According to Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, businesses should prioritize using raw materials from domestic sources or from markets that are not subject to defense investigations to reduce the risk of being subject to anti-avoidance taxes.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/phong-ve-thuong-mai-tiep-tuc-nong-trong-nam-2025-d240079.html
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