Old people, new scenes in Poland

The return of Donald Tusk as Polish Prime Minister could bring about significant change in the region, if he can overcome internal hurdles.

Donald Tusk celebrates after the Polish House of Representatives approved a proposal to form a new government led by this politician on December 12. (Source: Reuters)

On December 12, the proposal to have the Civic Alliance led by this politician was approved by the Polish Sejm with 248 votes in favor, 201 against and 0 abstentions. Thereby, Mr. Tusk returned to the position of Polish Prime Minister after eight years, replacing Mr. Mateusz Morawiecki. A day later, the new government was sworn in.

In the cabinet, 9 out of 26 ministers are women. Will this change bring the necessary fresh air to Poland and Europe?

Timely return

The answer is yes if we consider the following aspects.

First of all, in the past, he was a politician with a clear pro-European Union (EU) line. During Mr. Tusk's term as Prime Minister (2007-2014), the trio of Poland, France and Germany, known as the "Weimar Triangle", worked closely to promote the development of the European business community. This result created an important premise for him to become President of the European Council (2014-2019).

With that experience, EU officials have high expectations for Mr. Tusk. According to a European diplomat, since this politician won the general election in October, at the meeting afterwards, President of the European Commission (EC) Ursula von der Leyen welcomed Mr. Tusk “as if he were already Prime Minister”. In fact, the experience and relationship of the Polish Prime Minister and the former EC President make him expected to make a positive contribution to the process of solving many challenges facing the EU, from Ukraine, Hungary to migrants, energy security or food.

In addition, with Mr. Tusk as Prime Minister, the troubled relationship between Poland and Germany, Europe's leading country, may improve. Previously, Warsaw, under the Law and Justice (PiS) party, called on Berlin to pay reparations for the consequences of World War II, causing "turbulence" in bilateral relations. Mr. Piotr Buras, an expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (Germany), commented: "Relations (between Poland) and Germany will improve, because they cannot get any worse now."

Even if this scenario comes true, given the complexities of Franco-German relations, Mr. Buras believes that it will be difficult for the “Weimar Triangle” to return. However, by simply stopping criticism, stopping saying “no” to Europe and creating new momentum, Mr. Donald Tusk can bring about a necessary change for the continent.

“Overall, we don’t want to talk too much about the change of government in Poland,” said another EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “In fact, it has changed the balance in the European Council. We will be working with a more constructive government. This will definitely change the game.”

The resistance is still there.

However, things have not been going so smoothly for Donald Tusk and Europe. In fact, the “honeymoon” between the two sides will soon end if there is no answer to the most urgent issue: the disbursement of EU grants and loans to Poland worth 35 billion euros to overcome the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as 76.5 billion euros in annual development funds. Previously, the EU had frozen both of these funds, criticizing Warsaw under PiS for not respecting the rule of law.

Mr Tusk will try to change this situation. According to media reports, the veteran politician is trying to convince the European Commission to release 6.9 billion euros in advance from the recovery fund, even if Poland has not yet met the requirements set by the EU.

But sooner or later, Warsaw will have to meet all the European conditions to “unlock” the rest of the fund. This task is not easy when the presence of PiS, from President Andrzej Duda to the Constitutional Court, is still there. Any attempt to reform the judicial system will have to go through Mr. Duda, who has the right to veto or ask the Constitutional Court to consider and make a decision.

Mr Tusk’s rise to power does not mean the 180-degree change that many hoped for. His previous term was marred by issues such as coal use, the agricultural sector and relations with Russia.

Much of this remains the case today, one way or another. On the one hand, Poland remains one of Ukraine’s biggest military backers, remaining a close ally of the United States with a commitment to buy more defense equipment from the United States and South Korea. On the other hand, Warsaw remains a laggard in green energy development, with agriculture continuing to dominate policy.

Mr. Buras commented: “The difference in views (between Mr. Tusk and his predecessor) on some issues is probably not as big as many people imagine.”

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/nguoi-cu-canh-moi-tai-ba-lan-253682.html