Old faces, new scenery in Poland

Donald Tusk's return as Prime Minister of Poland could bring about significant changes in the region, if he can overcome internal obstacles.

Donald Tusk celebrates after the Polish lower house of parliament approved his proposal to form a new government led by him on December 12. (Source: Reuters)

On December 12, the proposal for the Civic Alliance led by this politician was approved by the Polish House of Representatives (Sejm) with 248 votes in favor, 201 abstentions, and 0 blank votes. As a result, Tusk returned to the position of Prime Minister of Poland after eight years, replacing Mateusz Morawiecki. The new government was sworn in the following day.

In the cabinet, 9 out of 26 ministers are women. Will this change bring much-needed fresh air to Poland and Europe?

A timely return

The answer is yes, considering the following aspects.

First of all, in the past, he was a politician with a clearly pro-European Union (EU) stance. During his term as Prime Minister (2007-2014), the trio of Poland, France, and Germany, known as the "Weimar Triangle," worked closely together to promote the development of the European business community. This result laid the groundwork for him to become President of the European Council (2014-2019).

With that experience, EU officials placed high expectations on Mr. Tusk. According to a European diplomat, since the politician's victory in the October general election, at a subsequent meeting, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed Mr. Tusk "as if he were already Prime Minister." Indeed, the experience and relationship between the Polish Prime Minister and the former EC President led to expectations that he would make a positive contribution to resolving many of the challenges facing the EU, from Ukraine and Hungary to migration, energy security, and food security.

Furthermore, with Mr. Tusk as Chancellor, the already strained relationship between Poland and Germany, a leading European nation, may improve. Previously, Warsaw, under the Law and Justice (PiS) party, had called on Berlin for reparations for the consequences of World War II, causing a rift in bilateral relations. Piotr Buras, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations (Germany), commented: "Relations (between Poland) and Germany will improve, because they can't get any worse now."

Even if this scenario were to materialize, given the complexities of Franco-German relations, Buras believes it would be difficult for the "Weimar Triangle" to return. However, simply by ceasing criticism, stopping saying "no" to Europe, and creating new momentum, Donald Tusk could bring about a much-needed change for the continent.

Another unnamed EU official commented: “Overall, we don’t want to talk too much about the change of government in Poland. In fact, it has shifted the balance in the European Council. Because we will be working with a more constructive government. This will certainly be a game changer.”

The resistance remains.

However, things haven't been so smooth sailing for Donald Tusk and Europe. In fact, the honeymoon period between the two sides will soon end if there isn't an answer to the most pressing issue: the disbursement of the €35 billion in EU aid and loans to Poland to mitigate the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the €76.5 billion in annual development funds. Previously, the EU had frozen these two funds, criticizing Warsaw under PiS for not respecting the rule of law.

Mr. Tusk will try to change this situation. According to media reports, the veteran politician is trying to persuade the European Commission to release 6.9 billion euros from the recovery fund in advance, even if Poland has not yet met the EU's requirements.

Sooner or later, Warsaw will have to meet all of Europe's conditions to "unlock" the rest of the fund. This task is no simple one, given the presence of PiS, from President Andrzej Duda to the Constitutional Court. Any attempts to reform the judicial system will have to go through Duda, who has the power to veto or request the Constitutional Court to review and make a decision.

Tusk's rise to power did not mean a complete 180-degree change as many had hoped. His previous term faced numerous challenges, such as coal use, the agricultural sector, and relations with Russia.

Now, much of this problem remains unresolved in one way or another. On the one hand, Poland remains one of Ukraine's biggest military supporters, maintaining its close ally status with commitments to purchase significant defense equipment from the US and South Korea. On the other hand, Warsaw lags behind in the development of green energy, with agriculture continuing to dominate policy.

Mr. Buras commented: "The differences in opinion (between Mr. Tusk and his predecessor) on some issues are probably not as great as many people imagine."

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/nguoi-cu-canh-moi-tai-ba-lan-253682.html