Russia's Missile Race: Europe Worried About Nuclear War, Experts Warn of 'Serious Cracks'

Fears of nuclear war have recently increased after the US deployed long-range missiles in Germany capable of striking Russia, and Moscow vowed to respond in kind.

The US Navy fires a Tomahawk cruise missile on April 14, 2018. (Source: US Navy)

At the NATO summit in July, the US and Germany announced that they would begin deploying long-range missiles in the central European country by 2026 to demonstrate their commitment to NATO and European defense. "The deployment of advanced weapons will demonstrate the US commitment to NATO and our contribution to the integrated deterrent in Europe," the White House said.

The system to be deployed will include Tomahawk cruise missiles, SM-6 ballistic missiles and several new hypersonic missiles currently under development. The main condition of the agreement is that none of the missiles will be equipped with nuclear warheads.

This is a strong signal to both Russia and NATO allies that the alliance is significantly enhancing its existing capabilities to respond to direct actions against the bloc.

"Throw the wick stone, throw the lead stone back"

Russia immediately responded to the plan, announcing that it would consider deploying nuclear warheads to locations in Western Europe. Speaking at a large-scale Naval Parade on the occasion of Navy Day in Saint Petersburg on July 28, Russian President Putin warned that the US move could trigger a Cold War-style missile crisis.

With a flight time to the targets of only about ten minutes, all important Russian targets will be within the range of these missiles, including state and military administration bodies, administrative-industrial centers and defense infrastructure, posing a threat to Russia's national security.

According to him, if the US deploys long-range precision missile systems in Germany, Russia will consider itself free from the ban on deploying medium- and short-range strike weapons, including by improving the capabilities of the coastal forces of the Russian Navy… The development of similar systems in Russia is currently at the final stage… Russia will take countermeasures commensurate with the deployments by the US and its allies in Europe and other regions of the world.

At the same time, he said, since NATO weapons "may in the future be equipped with nuclear warheads," Russia will "take corresponding response measures."

The Financial Times revealed that it had obtained leaked classified Russian military documents, the Russian Navy has been trained to target locations across Europe “with a reach as far as the west coast of France or Barrow-in-Furness in the UK”.

US President Ronald Reagan (right) and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev sign the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 1987. (Source: Reuters)

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was signed in 1987 by then US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to prevent a Cold War-era arms race between the two countries.

However, former President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the treaty in 2019, citing evidence of Russian non-compliance. President Putin later denied that Russia had deployed weapons in violation of the treaty, but said Moscow was no longer bound by its obligations. This has raised new concerns about an arms race in Europe between Russia and the US-led Western alliance.

Europe strengthens defense capabilities

On the German side, the head of the parliamentary faction of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Rolf Mützenich, said that the decision to deploy long-range missiles in Berlin could lead to a new arms escalation as Russia's assertiveness forces Europe to focus on strengthening the imbalance in strategic offensive capabilities.

The first major task is to strengthen defense capabilities. The European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) was proposed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in 2022 and signed by 10 NATO allies in October 2023. ESSI includes a joint plan to procure integrated air defense systems that can be operated in parallel. The initiative extends to 21 countries, including neutral Switzerland.

At the NATO summit in July, France, Germany, Italy and Poland went further, signing the European Long-Range Strike Access Agreement (ELSA). The agreement aims to enable the development, production and delivery of European long-range strike capabilities to complement the US-German agreement.

According to NATO, Russia’s defense strategy is based on the use of large ballistic and cruise missile strikes to prevent NATO forces from reaching Moscow’s range. This is known as anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) military strategy, which dates back to the early days of the Cold War, although the strategy has been refined over the years.

Currently, NATO's air- and sea-based missile arsenal is incapable of overcoming Russia's A2/AD defense system because the longest-range missile the organization has ever deployed in Europe is the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) - used mainly in Ukraine and limited to a maximum range of 300 km.

In fact, NATO has a range of long-range missile systems with ranges of up to 3,000km that can be used to defend and attack high-value targets deep inside Russia. The hypersonic missile classes currently being developed by NATO can launch payloads at speeds of up to five times the speed of sound.

While most NATO weapon systems are configured to carry conventional warheads, the BGM-109A Tomahawk land-attack missile has previously carried nuclear warheads. Other missiles could certainly be modified to do so.

According to observers, at this time NATO does not have any ground-based missile systems in Europe capable of fully preventing a Russian attack on a member of the bloc. Russia's A2/AD systems are enough to prevent NATO from approaching within attack range.

The risk of new nuclear competition

Unlike the Cold War, the United States will face a nuclear-armed rival in the next decade: China. By 2034, China will have as many strategic nuclear weapons as the United States does today, according to a senior U.S. official during a visit to Australia last month. So in 10 years, the United States could be outnumbered by Russia and China, with more than 3,000 strategic nuclear warheads compared to Washington’s 1,500.

Under the terms of the 2018 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), Russia and the United States are each allowed to have 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy nuclear bombers. The treaty is set to expire on February 5, 2026. However, Russia suspended its treaty commitments last year — although it has said it will stick to the 1,550 deployed warhead limit.

A medium-range ballistic missile target is launched from a facility in the Pacific Ocean, before being successfully intercepted by a Standard Missile-6 missile from the guided-missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones, in Kauai, Hawaii, US on August 29, 2017. (Source: US Navy)

Pranay Vaddi, special assistant to the President for arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation at the Russian National Security Council, commented on the possibility that some Asian countries "are expanding and diversifying their nuclear arsenals at a dizzying pace and without regard for arms control."

The past decade has exposed serious cracks in the international pillars of nuclear risk reduction, the prominence of nuclear weapons, and the limitation of the strategic arsenals of the largest nuclear powers, the expert said. At the same time, he said, balancing the total number of nuclear weapons between the US, Russia and China would be an extremely costly step that could take decades.

In short, Mr. Pranay Vaddi emphasized that the US and its allies "must prepare for a world where nuclear competition takes place without guaranteed quantitative limitations."

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