In 2024, Vietnam's rice exports will reach a record 9.18 million tons with a turnover of 5.75 billion USD, up 12.9% in volume and 23% in value compared to 2023. To maintain growth momentum in the context of falling rice prices and increasing competition among suppliers, businesses need effective solutions to further improve product quality and expand export markets.
According to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production in the 2024/25 crop year will increase to 533.8 million tons, an increase of 11.6 million tons compared to the 2023/24 crop year; total global supply is expected to increase by 10.6 million tons to 713.1 million tons; rice trade is expected to reach a record 57.2 million tons due to increased exports from many countries.
Supply increases
According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), since the end of September 2024, when India officially lifted the ban on exporting regular white rice (non-basmati), the export prices of rice from most countries have decreased. However, by the end of 2024, Vietnam's rice exports still reached new milestones.
Since the beginning of 2025, Vietnam's rice export prices have continuously decreased sharply. Currently, the export price of 5% broken rice is at the lowest level compared to the other three major exporting countries: Thailand, India and Pakistan, reaching only 404 USD/ton, while the same type of rice from Thailand is 434 USD/ton, Indian and Pakistani rice are 415 USD/ton and 412 USD/ton respectively.
The reason is that supply continues to increase in many countries while major importing countries are planning to increase production along with policies to limit imports of high-priced rice in 2025.
For example, Indonesia, Vietnam's second largest rice importer for many years, is expected to reduce rice imports by 2025 by focusing on boosting domestic production.
The Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture announced that the government has set a target for the Indonesian National Logistics Agency (Bulog) to purchase 3 million tons of domestically produced rice at a price of $401 per ton to achieve food self-sufficiency by 2027; at the same time, expand the cultivated area to increase crop productivity, achieving two harvests from 1.7 million hectares in 2024 and aiming for 2.5 million hectares in 2025. This surplus is expected to encourage farmers to increase production and contribute to national food security.
In addition, other countries such as South Korea and Japan will also experience a slowdown in rice imports in 2025. Specifically, in South Korea, the average rice consumption per capita in 2025 is expected to decrease to 53.3 kg due to changes in eating habits.
Meanwhile, according to VFA, Japan plans to release part of its 1 million tons of strategic rice reserves to address soaring domestic rice prices and consumer concerns about rice shortages in the country, aiming to stabilize prices and ensure market supply during periods of high demand.
Not only Vietnam, the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) also predicts that the country's rice exports will also decrease significantly, down to 7.5 million tons in 2025, due to increased competition from India and reduced demand from Indonesia.
Meanwhile, in India, in addition to boosting rice exports again, rice acreage and output are also expected to increase in the coming months. As of the end of January 2025, Indian farmers have planted Rabi rice on 3.515 million hectares, up 15.7% compared to 3.038 million hectares in 2024, which will be harvested around March-April 2025, creating new supply for the market.
Flexible production and export management
The Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) said that by the end of January 2025, the 2024 autumn-winter crop in the provinces and cities of the Mekong Delta had planted 711,000 hectares out of 700,000 hectares of planned area, harvested 711,000 hectares with a yield of about 58.45 quintals/ha, and an estimated output of 4.157 million tons of rice.
The 2024-2025 winter-spring crop has planted more than 1.4 million hectares, reaching 100% of the planned area, and has begun harvesting about 167,000 hectares with a yield of 61 quintals/ha, with an estimated output of 1.018 million tons of rice.
Thus, a large amount of rice has been harvested and brought to the market, thereby increasing Vietnam's rice supply. This has caused domestic rice prices to decrease during the last Lunar New Year. Therefore, to ensure stable rice prices and benefits for farmers, rice export activities must be cleared right from the first months of the year.
As of mid-January 2025, Vietnam had exported 268,700 tons of rice, reaching a turnover of nearly 165.7 million USD, an increase of 38.7% in volume and 23.28% in value over the same period in 2024.
Recognizing the market as an important issue to boost rice exports in 2025, relevant ministries and sectors have planned to focus heavily on trade promotion. According to Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) Tran Thanh Hai, in the coming time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will step up the implementation of solutions to promote rice exports to maintain growth momentum for this industry.
However, rice exporting enterprises also need capital support from banks to increase financial capacity in purchasing rice for export. In particular, from January 1, 2025, the Government issued Decree 01/2025/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 107/2018/ND-CP on rice trading and export.
In particular, it proposes clearer management solutions for rice exports to contribute to ensuring domestic food security; at the same time, it improves the value and quality of rice, builds rice brands and promotes trade promotion. Specifically, the Decree clearly states that priority is given to allocating annual funding for the program to develop foreign trade activities and promote rice trade, ensuring proactiveness, focus and key points in the management and operation of rice products.
In addition to traditional markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, in 2025, we will focus on exploiting markets with increasing demand such as the Middle East and Northern Europe, while also having new solutions to more effectively exploit the Chinese market, which has seen a significant decline in rice output and export turnover in 2024.
In addition, businesses and associations also need to actively coordinate with the Ministry of Industry and Trade in bringing Vietnamese rice products into distribution chains, shopping centers, and retail supermarkets in importing countries to promote and enhance customer recognition of Vietnamese rice products.
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