High quality rice gradually dominates exports

In the structure of exported rice varieties, high-quality rice gradually dominates the total rice export volume of Vietnam.

Fragrant rice and specialty rice exports account for nearly 25%

According to the report of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), in the first two months of 2025, the country's rice exports are estimated to reach 1.1 million tons (up 5.9%), with a value of 613 million USD (down 13.6%). The average rice export price is estimated at 553.6 USD/ton, down 18.3% over the same period last year.

Premium fragrant rice accounts for only 19% of total exports. Illustrative photo

In early March 2025, export rice prices were: 100% broken rice 310 USD/ton; 5% broken rice 393 USD/ton; 25% broken rice 367 USD/ton.

In terms of types, white rice accounts for about 71% of total export volume, the average export price of white rice is 523 - 540 USD/ton, in which, the main export markets are the Philippines, Indonesia and Africa.

High-quality fragrant rice varieties such as Jasmine, Dai Thom, ST24, ST25 only account for 19% of total rice export output, the average export price of fragrant rice is around 640 - 700 USD/ton. The main export markets are the EU, the United States, China and Japan.

Sticky rice accounts for 6% of total export output, of which the main export markets are China, the Philippines and some other Southeast Asian countries. In addition, Japonica rice and other specialty rice account for 4% of total export output, the main export markets are Japan, Korea and other high-end markets.

Regarding the rice import market, in 2024, the Philippines will be Vietnam's largest import market with a market share of 46.1% in 2024, a value increase of 48.9% compared to 2023, a volume of about 2.91 million tons, mainly white rice and a small part of fragrant rice.

Indonesia and Malaysia are the next two largest markets with market shares of 13.2% (value increased by 16.6%) and 7.5% (value increased by 2.1 times) respectively. China is also a large rice import market with a volume of 1 million tons in 2024, but a sharp decrease compared to the previous year (68.45). The EU and the United States are two import markets for high-quality rice such as specialty fragrant rice ST24, ST25 with small market shares of about 0.5-0.6%/year.

In early March 2025, the price of IR504 raw rice was commonly at 8,000 - 8,100 VND/kg; the price of finished rice was commonly at 9,500 - 9,700 VND/kg; long-grain fragrant rice was commonly at 20,000 - 22,000 VND/kg; common white rice was 17,000 - 21,000 VND/kg; broken rice was 7,100 - 7,300 VND/kg.

According to the reporter of Cong Thuong Newspaper, at the traditional markets in Hanoi, the prices of rice varieties such as Bac Huong, Tam Hai Hau, Tam Dien Bien and Thai Do are still maintained at 19,000 to 20,000 VND/kg, while some specialty rice varieties such as Seng Cu and ST24, ST25 are still maintained at 23,000 VND/kg and 38,000 VND/kg, respectively.

Global rice trade expected to reach 58.5 million tonnes

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production in 2024/2025 is expected to reach a record high of 533.7 million tons (milled rice), up 11 million tons from the previous year.

Global supply is forecast to reach 712.8 million tonnes (up 9.5 million tonnes). Global consumption is forecast to be high at 530.3 million tonnes, up 6.2 million tonnes from 2024, driven by increased consumption in countries such as India and the Philippines.

Ending stocks are estimated at 182.5 million tonnes, up 3.4 million tonnes from the previous year (India and China account for 81% of global stocks). Global trade is expected to reach 58.5 million tonnes with strong demand from major markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia.

Mr. Ngo Hong Phong - Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development - commented that the global demand for rice imports is still likely to remain high; the advantage of fragrant and high-quality rice is favored in high-end markets such as the EU, the United States, and Japan; ... is an advantage for Vietnamese rice. In addition, free trade agreements, along with production support policies such as restructuring production, and domestic supply basically ensure favorable conditions for Vietnamese rice exports.

However, India's lifting of the ban on white rice exports from September 2024 has put great pressure on other exporting countries, especially low-grade white rice; cheap rice from Pakistan and Myanmar continues to dominate price-sensitive markets such as Africa and the Middle East; Thai fragrant rice still maintains its premium position, putting competitive pressure in the high-quality rice segment.

In addition, barriers from import standards from demanding markets such as the EU, Japan, and the United States; risks from import policies of some major markets that may adjust import policies, such as tax reduction or subsidies for domestic rice, reducing the competitiveness of Vietnamese rice;...

In the first two months of this year, Vietnam exported 1.15 million tons of rice, of which the Philippines market accounted for over 505,000 tons. Regarding this largest rice export market of Vietnam, Mr. Phung Van Thanh - Commercial Counselor, Vietnam Trade Office in the Philippines - said that if in 2023, the Philippines' domestic rice production exceeded 20 million tons for the first time, reaching 20.06 million tons, then in 2024, due to the impact of natural disasters, storms, floods... the Philippines' domestic rice production only reached 19.3 million tons.

At the same time, according to some sources, the Philippines' rice imports in 2024 will increase sharply to a record 4.68 million tons, while in previous years they were only below 4 million tons. In the context that the Philippines cannot increase domestic production overnight, rice is still an important commodity and the Philippines' rice import demand in 2025 will still reach between 4.8 million tons and 5.0 million tons. The Philippine market continues to be an opportunity for Vietnam's rice exports.

Due to the impact of global supply and demand, Vietnam's rice exports in the first two months of 2025 tended to decline due to the continuous decrease in export prices. Domestically, the provinces of the Mekong Delta are currently harvesting the winter-spring rice crop, so the rice purchase price has decreased significantly compared to the same period in 2024.

On March 4, 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh signed Official Dispatch No. 21/CD-TTg directing urgent implementation of solutions to ensure balance between rice supply and demand.

It is expected that this afternoon (March 7), the Prime Minister will chair a conference with leaders of provinces and cities in the Mekong Delta on implementing solutions to prevent rice prices from falling.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gao-chat-luong-cao-dan-chiem-uu-the-xuat-khau-377166.html