(CLO) China is making efforts to develop wide-body aircraft to compete with Airbus and Boeing, although Beijing's plans may depend on cooperation from Western regulators and suppliers.
The C909 and C919 are just the beginning
China has long harbored ambitions to break the monopoly of Airbus and Boeing in the global aviation market with world-class jets built domestically.
That strategy has been well-executed as state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) has received orders for hundreds of its medium-range narrow-body aircraft, the C909 and C919.
China Southern Airlines launches its fleet of C919s, China-made mid-range passenger jets. Photo: China Southern Airlines
The Chinese aircraft maker now appears to be laser-focused on producing wide-body aircraft capable of long-haul flights, an effort driven not only by market demand but also by political and strategic factors.
“There are not many other engineering products besides these big, visible and recognizable aircraft,” said David Yu, a professor at New York University Shanghai who studies aviation finance. “Like the US and Europe, China has many reasons to develop and operate its own wide-body aircraft, reflecting its status and ambitions.”
Comac was founded in 2008 with the mission of realizing Beijing's long-term aviation strategy, when Chinese leaders believed the country needed a complete "product range" of aircraft to demonstrate its advanced manufacturing capabilities.
And Comac executives have stressed that the rapid rollout of the C919 over the past few years marks just the first steps of a much larger project, as the company moves from narrow-body jets to larger, more sophisticated models.
Wei Yingbiao, then deputy general manager of Comac and now an executive at another state-owned enterprise, reiterated this view again at a forum in Harbin last December.
“We are looking at the C929 and C939 wide-body aircraft,” Wei said. “We are also envisioning future generations, including electric, hydrogen and hybrid aircraft.”
Ambition to reach new heights with C929 and C939
According to Chinese sources, the C929 can carry up to 440 people and has a range of 12,000 km – the distance from Shanghai to New York. It will reportedly be on par with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A350 in some performance metrics.
Models of the Comac C929 wide-body passenger aircraft (top) and the Comac C919 narrow-body passenger aircraft (bottom) at the 2023 Shanghai Airshow. Photo: The Air Current
Prototypes for the new jet are currently under development, with domestic suppliers expected to begin shipping some major components, including the first mid-fuselage section, to the project in 2027.
The larger C939, whose specifications are still being drafted, is expected to be roughly the size of the Boeing 777 and 747.
While Comac has yet to commit to a delivery date, it is hoped that the C929 and C939 can be developed in a shorter timeframe than Boeing and Airbus' first wide-body aircraft.
Boeing began producing its first jumbo jet, the iconic 747, in the 1960s, when the US airline industry was entering its golden age. The aircraft entered service in 1970, 13 years after Boeing's first narrow-body, the 707, was introduced.
But it took Airbus less than 10 years – from concept to trial production – to create its first wide-body aircraft, the A300, which entered service in 1974.
The C929 was first conceived in 2016 as a Sino-Russian joint venture, then known as the CR929. Although Russia later withdrew, some of the groundwork was laid for the project.
“You definitely don’t need to start from scratch, because the CR929 already provides the platform,” said an unnamed source at Shanghai Aircraft Manufacturing, a subsidiary of Comac.
“Designing a wide-body aircraft today is easier than it was when Boeing first started in the 1960s. There are now mature designs, components and partners that Comac can look at.”
Opportunities and challenges
Analysts warn that Comac may have to overcome a number of geopolitical hurdles to get its widebody aircraft off the ground. And while external tensions are unlikely to deter the company from pursuing its ambitions, they could complicate matters.
In particular, the commercial viability of Comac's new wide-body aircraft may depend on the attitude of foreign regulators, as the company cannot rely solely on domestic long-haul flights.
Interior of the Comac C919. Photo: Jet Photos
Although the global aviation market has increasingly shifted toward smaller planes in recent years, forcing Western planemakers to cut production of jumbo jets, “the need for wide-body aircraft will remain, with long-haul routes not suited to small aircraft,” said John Grant, an analyst at British aviation consultancy OAG.
A Boeing report predicts that China's commercial aircraft fleet will double by 2043, meaning the country will need to buy 1,575 new wide-body aircraft.
Comac is counting heavily on support from China’s state-owned airlines, which have placed large orders for the C919 and are expected to continue doing so for future domestic passenger jets. In November, Air China was confirmed as a launch customer for the C929.
But the international market will remain crucial. And Beijing needs to find ways to minimize any delays in getting Western regulators to certify Chinese wide-body aircraft.
There is also the challenge of engines. The C929 and C939 will almost certainly use engines made by Western suppliers, as domestic alternatives are not yet up to standard. This could make them vulnerable to political risk.
“In the future, the West may view China’s aviation industry as a dual military-civilian industry – making it more difficult to get approval for Western engines [for new aircraft models] if the political and commercial environment changes dramatically,” said Richard Aboulafia, chief executive of US-based consultancy Aerodynamic Advisory.
Although Comac has existing design parameters to follow when developing its wide-body aircraft, political tensions between China and the West could slow down the company's C929 production and delivery schedule, and the C939 even further, according to Professor David Yu of New York University Shanghai.
China still needs to buy Western engines for its Comac planes. Photo: SCMP
Professor Yu, who is also chairman of consultancy China Aviation Valuation Advisors, said the best way for Beijing to protect Comac from potential geopolitical challenges may be to boost the company's international cooperation.
“The more Western companies participate, the less political backlash China’s civil aviation programs will receive from the West,” he said.
Representatives from US and European partners including GE Aerospace and Liebherr also told SCMP at the Zhuhai Airshow in November that they would support Comac's wide-body aircraft ambitions.
Quang Anh
Source: https://www.congluan.vn/may-bay-cho-khach-trung-quoc-quyet-canh-tranh-voi-boeing-va-airbus-post338744.html
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