First assessment
The Paris Agreement on Climate Change (CC) was adopted at the COP 21 Conference in 2015, focusing on comprehensively addressing the contents of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The goal is to control the increase in the average global temperature significantly lower than the threshold of 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century (compared to the pre-industrial period); at the same time, encouraging countries to do more to limit the temperature increase to only 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The Paris Agreement requires Parties to periodically review global efforts every five years, with the first in 2023, to inform and promote implementation of the Agreement by each Party and globally. The provision aims to ensure that countries are stepping up their actions towards their goals and are on track to achieve the Paris Agreement goals.
The first GST will be released at COP28, scheduled to take place from 30 November to 12 December 2023 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The report will assess the world’s progress in cutting greenhouse emissions, building resilience, and securing climate finance and support to tackle the climate crisis.
The GST 2023 is based on more than 1,600 documents from various sources and from consultations with scientists, governments, cities, businesses, farmers, indigenous peoples, civil society and others.
According to the September 2023 Synthesis Report, the GST will help the world determine how far it is from achieving the Paris Agreement goals, identify key areas for more drastic action, and set a roadmap for the systemic transformation needed to cut emissions, build resilience, and protect the future.
At the end of COP28, countries should reach consensus on the conclusions of the GST, using this assessment to promote action towards the global goal of limiting temperature increases to 1.5°C and addressing the impacts of climate change. If implemented effectively, the GST can also provide a basis for guiding climate policy and investment decisions by states and non-state actors. The assessment also helps to accelerate the transition towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
3 areas of assessment
At COP24 in Poland in 2018, countries agreed that the GST would assess climate progress in three main areas, including: Mitigation; adaptation and implementation tools.
On mitigation, the GST assesses global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement targets and identifies opportunities to reduce emissions. On adaptation, the GSST measures progress in countries’ ability to recover from and reduce vulnerability to climate impacts.
On implementation instruments, including climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building, the GST assesses progress in aligning financial flows with emissions reduction and climate resilience targets, and provides financial support to developing countries to respond.
In addition, the global assessment also addresses loss and damage, helping to assess the actions and support needed to respond to the impacts of climate change. The GST also considers unintended economic and social consequences arising from actions and the implementation of commitments under the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Key issues
The Synthesis Report, released in September 2023, summarises the key findings of the first GST. In terms of the world’s progress on climate targets since the Paris Agreement, global temperatures are now projected to rise by 2.4-2.6°C by the end of the century, down from the 3.7-4.8°C predicted in 2010. This shows the need for the world to continue to implement more ambitious and urgent targets on all fronts to combat the climate crisis.
The Synthesis Report also highlights the “emissions gap”, noting that current pathways are not in line with climate commitments. It sets out a new path forward, noting that a systematic energy transition would deliver more sustainable emissions reductions. The most urgent goals now are to phase out fossil fuels, scale up renewables, and transform much of the transport and industrial sectors. At the same time, reduce emissions of other greenhouse gases such as methane; promote nature conservation, end deforestation and develop sustainable agriculture.
Importantly, the global assessment puts people at the heart of these transitions, highlighting the importance of climate resilience and inclusive equity in the energy transition. It calls for strengthening tools to support adaptation and disaster relief, especially for vulnerable communities. The report finds that current plans, commitments and support are inadequate and unevenly distributed.
To address these issues, it is important to reorient the path of billions of dollars of global finance and mobilize resources towards a fair, zero-carbon future.
Transformational, equitable and locally relevant approaches will be key to achieving these ambitious and bold goals, which aim to promote sustainable development and eradicate poverty.
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