Scenario for Indonesia to attend World Cup 2026

Indonesia has not lost hope of participating in the 2026 World Cup

The 1-5 defeat to Australia on March 20 in Sydney dealt a heavy blow to Indonesia's ambitions in the journey to conquer a ticket to the 2026 World Cup. However, coach Patrick Kluivert and his students still have a chance to make amends.

The matches against Bahrain (March 25), China (June 5) and Japan (June 10) will be the challenges that will decide the fate of coach Patrick Kluivert and his students. Below are possible scenarios for Indonesia to realize their historic dream.

Win all last three matches

After the disastrous defeat to Australia, Indonesia must aim to win all 9 points from the next three matches to raise the total points to 15. The two matches against Bahrain and China are considered great opportunities as these are two opponents that are on par with "Garuda".

Bahrain are not a very dominant team at the moment, while China, despite their progress, are still within Indonesia's ability to beat if they maintain their focus and form.

The biggest challenge will come in the final match, when Indonesia will face Japan - the team that has won the ticket to the next round by dominating Group C. However, on June 10, Japan may not field its strongest squad after officially qualifying for the World Cup.

Therefore, Indonesia has the right to dream of a victory against the “Samurai Blue”. Obviously, for this scenario to come true and secure second place, Indonesia needs to wait for other results in the group.

Specifically, Australia (10 points) is not allowed to gain more than 5 points in the remaining 3 matches, Saudi Arabia (6 points) is also not allowed to gain more than 9 points in their last 4 matches.

13 points is still enough hope

If they cannot create a miracle against Japan, Indonesia can still hope with a scenario of winning against Bahrain and China, and holding Japan to a draw in the final round. This result will bring 7 points, bringing the "Garuda" total to 13.

This is not a very high number but still enough to compete for second place in case the direct opponents stumble. According to calculations, Indonesia can finish in second place in the group if Japan finishes the qualifying round with 24 points, while Australia and Saudi Arabia both stop at the maximum of 12 points.

Indonesia disappointed against Australia

Meanwhile, China need to be held to 9 points and Bahrain must not exceed 8. The defeat to Australia is a regrettable setback, but if the "Garuda" make good use of the two matches against Bahrain and China - and earn a point against Japan - they can completely surpass them on the extra index.

12 points and the battle of sub-indexes

In the worst case scenario, if Indonesia not only loses to Australia but also falls to Japan, the opportunity is not completely closed. By defeating Bahrain and China, "Garuda" will accumulate 12 points when the qualifying round ends.

This is a more realistic scenario, as Japan is still an opponent that Indonesia will find difficult to overcome in the current situation. To turn 12 points into a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup, Indonesia will need a bit of luck from other results.

Specifically, they can finish second if they have the same number of points as Australia (12 points) and surpass this opponent thanks to the additional index, while Saudi Arabia does not exceed 11 points, China stops at 9 points and Bahrain only has 6 points.

Despite suffering two defeats against strong teams, defeating Bahrain and China - two direct group rivals - will be key to keeping Indonesia's World Cup dream alive.

Despite falling into a difficult situation after the heavy defeat in Sydney, the Indonesian national team still has the right to decide for itself with the upcoming three matches. Bahrain and China are two tests that "Garuda" cannot afford to stumble, while the confrontation with Japan will require an extraordinary effort or a little favorable circumstances.