Former US President Donald Trump at a victory celebration after the primary election in New Hampshire (Photo: Reuters).
As expected, former US President Donald Trump continued to win the Republican primary in New Hampshire. This result brings him closer to a "rematch" with President Joe Biden, who is expected to become the Democratic candidate.
Biden himself seems to have realized this. "It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee," Biden declared on January 23, according to CNN .
American experts say that although there is still a chance for Nikki Haley, Mr. Trump's biggest rival in the Democratic Party, the possibility that she can "overthrow" the former president is not high.
"New Hampshire is a relatively friendly place (for Ms. Haley) due to the characteristics of the voters and the election law that allows independent voters to vote for her in the Republican primary. If she cannot win here, it will be difficult for her to win elsewhere," Professor Chris Galdieri at Saint Anselm College, New Hampshire, USA, commented to Dan Tri.
The results are not difficult to predict.
With 92% of the votes counted, Mr. Trump was leading with nearly 55% of the vote. Meanwhile, Ms. Nikki Haley was supported by more than 43% of voters, according to data from the New York Times.
According to Mr. David Mark, senior editor of the Washington Examiner magazine, the result in New Hampshire is a big victory for Mr. Trump, although the gap in votes between him and Ms. Haley seems to be lower than what the former president's campaign team wanted.
"After Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race, Haley bet her entire campaign on winning New Hampshire. Haley held many events in New Hampshire, as well as tried to attract independent voters. These efforts brought certain results, but not enough to break Mr. Trump's firm grip on this state," Mr. Mark commented.
However, Mr. Henry Olsen, a senior expert at the Ethics and Public Policy Center (EPCC), a research institute based in Washington (USA), has a different opinion. According to this expert, this is not necessarily a big victory for former President Trump, at least compared to the results of public opinion polls before the election.
According to a survey released by NBC News, the Boston Globe and Suffolk University on January 21, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Haley by 19 percentage points, the Guardian reported. Another survey released by the Washington Post and Monmouth University on January 22 also showed the gap at 18 percentage points.
One of the reasons Haley performed better than the polls suggested was the support of independent voters, two-thirds of whom voted for Haley, according to a CNN post-election survey. Under New Hampshire election law, independents are allowed to vote without a party affiliation.
"His (Donald Trump's) weakness if he can make it to the general election is also obvious: Many independent voters oppose him," Mr. Olsen pointed out.
Professor Galdieri also commented that the result that Ms. Haley achieved was "relatively good". "This shows that many Republican voters do not completely agree with the third nomination of Mr. Trump as a candidate," he told Dan Tri.
Haley's future
Nikki Haley declared she would not give up despite her defeat in New Hampshire (Photo: Reuters).
Despite her defeat in New Hampshire, Ms. Haley still affirmed that she will continue her campaign.
"The race is not over. There are still dozens of states to go," she told supporters after initial vote counts showed Mr Trump would be the winner.
Ms Haley also declared Mr Trump as the opponent the Democrats have been waiting for. "They know Mr Trump is the only Republican in this country that Joe Biden can beat," Ms Haley said.
In early February, Republican voters in Nevada and the US Virgin Islands will choose their party’s presidential nominee. However, experts predict the next big contest will be in Haley’s home state of South Carolina on February 24.
"In theory, Haley would have a big advantage in her home state. However, Trump is very popular in South Carolina. Many elected officials in the state have also voiced their support for him. Haley must win in South Carolina if she wants to continue her campaign. If she loses - even by a small margin - she will no longer have a reason to cling to the campaign," Mark pointed out.
In Nevada and the US Virgin Islands, only registered Republicans are eligible to vote in the presidential election, while South Carolina has a much lower percentage of independent voters than New Hampshire. These factors make Haley’s chances even narrower.
Why did Trump win?
For his part, Mr. Trump appeared confident in his victory speech.
"We always win. We win primaries. We win general elections. (New Hampshire) is a great state. It's a very special place to me," he told the crowd.
Professor Galdieri points out that Mr. Trump's victory comes from the former president's strategy that has lasted for many years: Seeing support for him as part of the Republican identity.
In addition, according to experts, American voters also tend to vote for the person who is predicted to win, or often called the "prosperity effect". In this year's Republican election, Mr. Trump is the beneficiary of this factor, especially after he took the lead in Iowa earlier.
"In my opinion, voters want to be on the same side as the winner. When a candidate is clearly leading, voters will flock to this person, so they don't feel "eccentric". In my opinion, this is an important psychological factor that helped Mr. Trump gain more support in New Hampshire in the past 48 hours," Mr. Mark commented.
While agreeing with this assessment, Mr. Olsen also believes that the impact of the above effect will gradually decrease in the next elections.
"In American politics, the 'boom effect' is often overrated, but it does exist. This effect has worked in Trump's favor over the past week, but he still hasn't won. By the time South Carolina voters go to the polls on February 24, any impact from his Iowa victory will have faded," Olsen added.
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