The price of gold rings in the trading session on September 26 set a new record, increasing by 100,000-200,000 VND/tael, to 83 million VND/tael (selling price), closely approaching the price of SJC gold bars.
Although prices increased sharply and continuously reached new peaks, trading in the gold market was quiet.
With SJC gold bars, people still complain that it is difficult to buy at the price of 83.5 million VND/tael through 4 major banks: BIDV, Vietcombank, VietinBank, Agribank and Saigon Jewelry Company Limited (SJC).
Trading in plain gold rings is also not very active. When the price of gold increases sharply, many stores limit the quantity sold to only 1-3 taels per customer; the selling time is also very short, in some places only 10 minutes.
In fact, the size of the gold market in Vietnam is quite small and transactions have become even rarer as the State Bank (SBV) and a number of ministries and sectors participate in stabilizing this market.
Cash flow is still partly pouring into the real estate market as apartment and land prices increase, but mainly into the banking system.
Many credit institutions, such as Agribank, NCB, PGBank, BacABank, OceanBank,... in the last week of September tended to adjust their deposit interest rates up compared to the end of August, by about 0.1-0.5 percentage points, focusing on short terms. Online savings interest rates are also higher than at-the-counter interest rates. Some banks have very high "special interest rates", up to 8-9.5%/year, for deposits from several hundred billion to thousands of billions of VND.
The trend of banks raising interest rates is taking place in the context that these organizations are boosting lending, especially in the last quarter of the year.
According to a representative of the State Bank of Vietnam, credit growth reached 7.38% in the first 8 and a half months of this year, low compared to the growth target of 15% for the whole year.
Previously, the Prime Minister requested to continue to consistently implement the credit growth target of about 15% for the whole year of 2024. At the end of August, the State Bank of Vietnam also allowed banks to loosen their credit "room" if the credit growth rate in 2024 reaches 80% of the target assigned at the beginning of the year.
Thus, in the coming time, more money will be pushed into the economy and market. This is a driving force for economic development.
New signals of cash flow
In the stock market, cash flow has been quite tight in recent months as foreign investors have withdrawn their net capital strongly, while institutional investors and large enterprises have had to settle many bond debts borrowed several years ago. Money has also been diverted to year-end business activities.
However, in recent sessions, cash flow has tended to flow into the stock market more strongly.
After months of lost liquidity, investors seemed to be discouraged, but on September 25, Vietnamese stocks unexpectedly recorded a return of billions of dollars in cash flow. Liquidity reached its highest level in 26 sessions, the VN-Index as well as the VN30-Index increased dramatically. Domestic investors poured money in, foreign investors also reversed to net buy.
By the session of September 26, cash flow was still pouring quite strongly into the stock market, thereby pulling the VN-Index past the 1,290-point barrier in the early afternoon session. Liquidity near the end of the session reached nearly VND22,000 billion on all three floors, including VND20,000 billion on HoSE.
Cash flow unexpectedly returned to the stock market in the context of investors receiving many positive policy signals, following the trend of supporting economic development.
Besides the Ministry of Finance's policy allowing securities companies to provide services without sufficient funds to trade for foreign institutional investors ( pre-funding ), the State Bank is also taking quite strong steps to inject more money into the economy.
According to VNDirect Securities, eliminating pre-funding helps the stock market attract more FII (foreign indirect investment) capital. This is also an important condition to support the Vietnamese stock market to be upgraded to an emerging market.
Some forecasts suggest that asset management funds worth trillions of dollars may pour money into Vietnamese stocks.
Recently, the Government has proposed that the National Assembly Standing Committee consider investing additional state capital in the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam - Vietcombank (VCB) through the form of stock dividends. VCB is proposed to add an additional VND 20,695 billion to increase its charter capital.
The capital increase not only helps VCB in the restructuring process but also supports the economy by providing a large amount of additional credit. This is also a trend seen in the world.
In the two sessions of September 24-25, in the open market, the State Bank of Vietnam increased lending to banks by mortgaging valuable papers (OMO), thereby injecting tens of thousands of billions into the system. Specifically, on September 25, the State Bank injected nearly VND15,000 billion for a 7-day term, with an interest rate of 4%, and on September 24, it injected a net of more than VND22,500 billion.
Money is being poured into the banking system, which can then flow into the economy and partly into other markets, including the stock market. More money will help increase liquidity and commodity prices.
Although economic policy signals and cash flow are positive, many businesses are still facing prolonged difficulties. In addition, profit-taking pressure when the VN-Index approaches 1,300 points is forecast to be very likely.
Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-nhan-lap-dinh-moi-dong-tien-ty-usd-co-the-do-vao-mot-kenh-dau-tu-2326114.html
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