USD price plummets, latest forecast on exchange rate in Vietnam

(NLDO) - The bank USD price is forecast to reach 26,000 VND, but there are many positive factors supporting the VND.

At noon on March 11, the USD index (DXY) on the international market was trading at 103.7 points, down about 0.22% compared to the previous session. During the session, there was a time when the DXY index dropped to 103.5 points, the lowest since November last year.

Since the beginning of March 2025, the USD has decreased by about 3% and lost 4.8% compared to the beginning of the year.

The cooling of the USD has helped reduce pressure on the exchange rate. Currently, Vietcombank is trading USD at 25,310 VND for buying and 25,670 VND for selling, down 30 VND/USD compared to the previous day. BIDV, Sacombank, Eximbank, ACB, etc. also listed the USD at a stable rate around this level. If calculated from the beginning of March until now, the USD price at banks has decreased by about 60 VND.

Giá USD lao dốc, dự báo mới nhất về tỉ giá tại Việt Nam- Ảnh 2. — USD prices at commercial banks have decreased in the past few days.

On the free market, the USD price also fluctuated little and was not too different from the bank price. Some foreign exchange points on the morning of March 11 quoted the USD buying price at 25,700 VND and selling price at 25,870 VND, about 200 VND/USD higher than the bank price.

Ms. Tran Khanh Hien, Director of Research - MBS Securities Company, expects the exchange rate to fluctuate in the range of 25,500 - 25,800 VND/USD when the new government's fiscal easing plans, combined with strict immigration policies, high interest rates in the US compared to other countries... are expected to support the USD appreciation. However, there are still positive factors supporting the VND, such as a positive trade surplus of about 1.47 billion USD in the first 2 months of the year; abundant disbursed FDI capital of nearly 3 billion USD and strong recovery of tourism.

On the management side, MBS experts said that the State Bank has made new moves in the context of strong exchange rate fluctuations, intervening by continuously increasing the central exchange rate, leading to a widening of the exchange rate ceiling, sharply increasing the intervention USD selling price from 25,450 VND to 25,951 VND/USD up to now.

The above steps show signals that the operator is accepting a stronger exchange rate fluctuation to reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves, instead of selling foreign currency to intervene in the market.