Coffee prices continue to stay high?

Coffee prices on June 21, 2024 in the domestic market are forecast to increase. According to a recent assessment by the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), the domestic coffee supply is almost exhausted, and the inventories of businesses and farmers are not large, so the export volume from now until the end of the season (September 2024) will gradually decrease even though coffee prices are at a record high.

In fact, data from the General Department of Customs shows that Vietnam's coffee exports in May 2024 reached 95,000 tons, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline in export volume. In the first 8 months of the 2023/2024 crop year (October 2023 to May 2024), Vietnam exported nearly 1.2 million tons of coffee, equivalent to 80% of the current crop year's output and down 7% compared to the same period last crop year.

This shows that the domestic coffee supply from now until the new crop year is not much left.

Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on June 20, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices today are in the range of 119,000-120,000 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 119,900 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 120,000 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 119,800 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 119,700 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province the price is 119,800 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province the coffee is purchased at the highest price of 120,000 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 118,800 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today (June 20) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 119,800 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 119,700 VND/kg.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for July 2024 delivery on the London floor was at 4,185 USD/ton, up 77 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for September 2024 was 4,024 USD/ton, up 30 USD; the delivery term for November 2024 was 3,869 USD/ton, up 17 USD and the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,702 USD/ton, down 2 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on June 20, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 228.85 - 233.95 cents/lb.

Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 233.95 cents/lb; up 7.70t/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 231.90 cents/lb, up 7.05 cents/lb; the March 2024 delivery period is 230.50 cents/lb, up 6.80 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 228.85 cents/lb, up 6.75 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:30 on June 20, 2024 increased slightly. Specifically, the delivery period for July 2024 is 283.90 USD/ton; the delivery period for September 2024 is 286.25 USD/ton (up 7.70%); the delivery period for December 2024 is 282.65 USD/ton (up 9.45%) and the delivery period for March 2025 is 271.80 USD/ton.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

The “one-man show” has helped Robusta prices on the London floor increase sharply again. However, according to experts, all three important components of the market still hold a large amount of buying positions, promising to continue to liquidate their buying positions. Continued selling will shake the market for the rest of July.

The ICO report shows that global coffee exports in April reached 12 million bags, up 16.8% over the same period last year. In the first 7 months of the 2023/24 crop year (October 2023 to April 2024), they reached nearly 81 million bags; an increase of 11.1% (equivalent to 8.1 million bags) over the same period in the 2022/23 crop year.

In May 2024, Robusta and Arabica prices on the world market decreased compared to the end of April 2024 due to forecasts of increased coffee production in Brazil.

Drought and pests have severely affected coffee productivity in many places. Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2023/24 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, down to 1.47 million tons – the lowest in 4 years, putting pressure on the supply of Robusta in the world market.

Coffee prices in the world market are generally under downward pressure as the new crop coffee harvest in Brazil enters its peak period. This makes the market expect new supplies from Brazil, especially Arabica coffee, to help relieve the pressure on supply that has lasted in recent months.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices are still being supported mainly by concerns about supply shortages from Vietnam. This is also the main driving force behind the recovery of the entire coffee market after a sharp decline in mid-May.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary by location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-2162024-gia-ca-phe-tiep-tuc-neo-cao-327208.html

Source: https://www.vietnam.vn/gia-ca-phe-tiep-tuc-neo-cao/