forecast to decline over the next four months

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) CMCU3 was trading at $8,915 a tonne.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) CMCU3 traded at $8,915 a tonne, down 8% in less than 10 days since Trump won the US presidential election.

The pressure on prices reflects growing concerns around the potential impact of trade policy on growth from the new US administration, said analyst Nicholas Snowdon of Mercuria Energy Trading.

Prices in the short term are also being held back by inventory levels, Snowdon said, forecasting a surplus of nearly half a million tonnes in the first quarter of 2025 due to rising inventories during the Lunar New Year holiday that began in late January and weak demand in the West.

“It is entirely possible that by March we will have global cathode stocks of just over one million tonnes,” he said.

LME copper could fall to $8,500 by the end of the first quarter of next year, most traders, producers, brokers and analysts said at the copper industry's annual meeting this week in Shanghai.

Others at the event said they expected prices to range between $9,000 and $9,500 next year, citing similar reasons as 2024.

Citi analysts have revised down their copper price forecast to $8,500 a tonne within three months, from $9,500 previously, due to the possibility of higher US trade tariffs and weaker-than-expected Chinese stimulus measures so far.

But prices are unlikely to fall below $8,500 as buyers will buy copper at that level, which is 20% below the record high hit in May this year of $11,104.50, a China-based analyst said.

Project Blue analyst Jonathan Barnes said LME copper prices could average $9,300-$9,400 over the next three months, with a potential drop to $8,500 in the near term as the market absorbs the effects of a Trump presidency, with 2025 prices expected to average $9,475-$9,575.

In the long term, prices are likely to be supported by demand driven by possible Chinese stimulus moves next year, analysts said.

Copper prices have also been supported by disruptions in mine supply, with analysts forecasting a deficit next year ranging from 500,000 tonnes to more than a million tonnes, forcing smelters to cut cathode output.

CRU expects copper prices to recover to $10,000 by the end of March 2025 and potentially reach $15,000 by 2029, supported by energy transition demand and mine supply shortages.

“In the short term (there will be) downside risk, but the structural story is not dead yet … and we see that starting to take hold more in the middle of the second half of next year,” said Mercuria’s Snowdon.

Source: https://kinhtedothi.vn/gia-kim-loai-dong-ngay-18-11-du-bao-giam-trong-bon-thang-toi.html