Recently, the Department of Trade Defense (Ministry of Industry and Trade) announced that it had received information that the European Commission (EC) had received a complete and valid dossier requesting an investigation to apply anti-dumping measures on non-alloy or alloy hot-rolled steel products imported from Vietnam. In case of initiating an investigation, the EC will send relevant parties documents including the Request, Decision to initiate an investigation and Investigation Questionnaire.

The Trade Defense Department recommends that enterprises exporting products subject to investigation monitor the case and have appropriate response plans.

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Steel industry faces many concerns. Photo: Hoang Ha

If this move becomes a reality, it will cause Vietnam's hot-rolled steel industry to receive a "double shock": losing both export market share and domestic market to imported goods.

According to data from Hoa Phat Group, hot rolled coil steel output in the second quarter of 2024 decreased by 10% compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to difficulties in consumption in both domestic and export markets.

The amount of imported low-priced hot-rolled coil steel flooding the Vietnamese market in the first half of 2024 increased sharply (6 million tons, 1.5 times higher than the same period in 2023 and exceeding the growth rate of the entire market), causing great pressure on Hoa Phat's hot-rolled coil steel consumption in the domestic market. Along with that, although HRC prices in the Vietnamese market increased briefly in February 2024, they decreased continuously from March to the end of the second quarter of 2024.

The export market also faces many challenges from the surplus of hot-rolled coil steel as well as the strengthening of trade defense measures in importing countries.

SSI Securities Company in its latest assessment report on Hoa Phat Group also mentioned this story. In addition, SSI said that the European Union has decided to extend protection measures on imported steel until the end of June 2026, and at the same time apply a 15% quota of the "other countries" list, equivalent to about 142,000 tons/quarter for Vietnam.

“This policy could reduce the HRC quota from Vietnam to Europe by about 50% compared to 2023. The tax rate applied to out-of-quota steel is 25%,” SSI forecast.

Meanwhile, according to SSI, the European market accounts for about 10% and 37% of Hoa Phat's total export revenue in 2022 and 2023, contributing 2.1% and 10.7% of Hoa Phat's total revenue, respectively.

Sharing with reporters, Ms. Nguyen Thi Minh Thao, Head of the Business Environment and Competitiveness Department (Central Institute for Economic Management Research) said: Countries still apply self-defense measures when domestic production is severely damaged by imported goods. Self-defense measures are often a solution applied in a short period of time. To consider whether hot-rolled steel imported from China is dumping or not, it is necessary to go through the investigation procedure for that product by the Department of Trade Defense, Ministry of Industry and Trade. This is a measure that can be completely implemented to protect domestic production.

"In the immediate future, applying safeguard measures is necessary when steel production is below design capacity and the market is declining. In the steel sector, when businesses are gaining market share and losing market share rapidly as it is now, it is necessary to have measures to protect domestic businesses, and that is also to protect domestic production," Ms. Nguyen Thi Minh Thao emphasized.

Ms. Nguyen Thi Minh Thao said: In the long term, in the context of zero import tax as committed in Free Trade Agreements, we can introduce non-tariff barriers, based on technical standards and regulations so that steel imported into Vietnam must ensure those technical standards. Those non-tariff barriers are technical barriers, and currently imported goods are entering Vietnam very smoothly.

“Meanwhile, domestic steel exports will soon be affected by the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), so export volumes will certainly decrease significantly from 2026 due to failure to meet carbon criteria,” Ms. Thao continued to note.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade has decided to conduct an investigation to apply anti-dumping measures on some hot-rolled steel products originating from India and China.