Nikki Haley, Donald Trump's opponent in the Republican primary, lost more than she gained when Ron DeSantis dropped out.
Supporters of Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, cheered during a campaign rally in New Hampshire on January 21, after she announced that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was dropping out of the White House race.
However, the 52-year-old politician herself may not be too happy. She understands that the two-horse race between her and former President Donald Trump is getting more difficult. Ron DeSantis not only announced his withdrawal, but also publicly supported Mr. Trump.
"DeSantis' withdrawal from the race has eliminated Haley's chance to keep Trump's approval rating below 50%," said Mike Dennehy, a Republican election strategist in New Hampshire.
Dennehy, who worked on the 2000 and 2008 presidential campaigns of the late Senator John McCain, predicts that Mr. Trump has a chance to win about 60% of support in the vote in New Hampshire on January 23.
Nikki Haley, former US ambassador to the United Nations, speaks to Republican voters on January 18 ahead of the New Hampshire primary. Photo: Reuters
For Trump’s primary opponents, New Hampshire has long been considered a “battlefield” where they have the best chance of unseating the former president. Among the early voting states, it is the only one where Trump has failed to win a majority during months of campaigning in 2023. New Hampshire voters tend to vote for candidates with more moderate and moderate positions.
Polls over the past few months have shown Haley winning the majority of independents planning to vote on January 23, as well as 71% of moderates. She also leads Trump among white-collar voters, with 50% to the former president’s 38%, according to a CNN/University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll. However, all three groups are a minority of the state’s Republican electorate.
Mr Trump still leads in New Hampshire, despite not having broken the 50% threshold for months. His platform is his overwhelming influence among Republican loyalists, conservatives and voters without college degrees.
In a UNH poll in early January, Trump led Haley by 39% to 32%. However, the race has continued to turn against the former US ambassador.
After Mr. Trump won overwhelmingly in Iowa, the opening state of the primary election, every survey in the past week in New Hampshire showed that he had a chance to surpass 50% of the vote. A series of Trump's opponents in the primary election dropped out one after another and announced their support for the former president to represent the party. First was Indian-origin billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy, then Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and now Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Each candidate’s exit from the race has been a boost to Trump’s campaign and has narrowed Haley’s field. While both candidates have picked up support from their former opponents’ constituencies, many voters still favored Trump over Haley when they switched sides.
Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire, said DeSantis poses a bigger challenge to Haley when he drops out than when he ran. The Florida governor’s support in the New Hampshire primary is forecast to fall to around 6%, as he focuses more resources on his South Carolina battleground.
"The situation may have changed. The Trump team thinks they can 'kill' Haley's campaign in New Hampshire, where she still has the potential to threaten the former president's ambitions, then return to the MAGA states with overwhelming advantages," Bartlett said, referring to Trump's loyal voters and "Make America Great Again" slogan.
Supporters wait to attend Donald Trump's campaign rally in Sioux Center, Iowa on January 5. Photo: AFP
DeSantis's base of voters, who lean conservative, is closer to Mr Trump's positions than Ms Haley's.
According to a survey by UNH and CNN on January 21, more than 60% of DeSantis supporters see Mr. Trump as a backup option if their candidate drops out, while 30% said they would switch to supporting Haley. A survey by Sufolk University, the Boston Globe and NBC10 Boston recorded that 57% of DeSantis voters were ready to support Trump, while Haley's support stood at 33%.
"In a two-horse race, a candidate who wants to show that he will surely win the overall election needs to achieve an overwhelming majority of more than 50% of the vote. Mr. Trump has a very good chance of reaching this milestone," said David Paleologos, director of the Sullofk University Voter Survey Center.
Despite the negative predictions, former ambassador Nikki Haley and her team remain optimistic about the upcoming New Hampshire primary. Members of Haley's campaign initially identified the primary as essentially a two-horse race between her and the former US president, before the field of candidates narrowed over the past few months.
After receiving news of DeSantis' withdrawal, Haley continued to issue a statement calling on voters to switch their support to her if they truly wanted "a new generation of leadership" and a politician who walks the talk.
"In America, there is no 'obvious winner'. Voters have the right to decide whether the country will go down the path of Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, or whether we will go down a new political path together," Haley emphasized.
Thanh Danh (According to Politico, CNN )
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