Expert: This year, apartment prices may increase another 10%

At the workshop "Identifying bright spots in business and investment in 2024", Ms. Dung analyzed the reasons why apartment prices in Hanoi have continuously increased since the beginning of the year.

According to Ms. Dung, for a long time, the apartment market in Vietnam in general and in Hanoi in particular has been lacking in supply, especially the supply for real housing needs (economy, mid-range, and close to mid-range and high-end).

Meanwhile, the population growth rate and urbanization are high as the number of people coming to Hanoi to study and work increases. In 2023 alone, the total new supply offered in the Hanoi market will be only about 10,000 units, equal to 1/4 compared to normal times.

For a long time, the apartment market in Vietnam in general and in Hanoi in particular has suffered from a lack of supply. (Illustration photo: Minh Duc)

Besides, savings interest rates hit rock bottom, causing cash flow to shift to real estate, especially the apartment segment.

Forecasting apartment prices in the coming time, Ms. Dung said that this year, apartments still have room to increase by about 10% and will only turn around and decrease when prices exceed the tolerance of buyers.

Giving advice on where to put money, Ms. Dung said that housing is still a product that attracts individual investors. Of the four segments: affordable, mid-range, high-end, and luxury, the mid-range and near mid-range high-end segments are the most interested and could be the bright spot of the market this year and in the coming years.

According to Ms. Dung, by investing in the mid-range housing segment, investors can find reasonable prices. Currently, the price of this segment in the Ho Chi Minh City market is about 30% higher than the Hanoi market.

" If in 2018-2019, many investors from the North moved to the South, now they are returning to the North, creating a lot of room. This trend will last at least for the next 1-2 years ," Ms. Dung predicted.

Commenting on the real estate market in the coming time, Dr. Can Van Luc also said that although it takes time, the real estate market will recover quickly and recover better than some countries because Vietnam does not have excess supply.

For the recovery to be effective, Dr. Can Van Luc said that it is necessary to drastically improve the business environment regarding capital and land issues. In particular, real estate prices should decrease, not increase as they have recently.

Business representative, Mr. Bui Quang Anh Vu, General Director of Phat Dat Real Estate Development Corporation, is also optimistic that with the new cycle of the economy, real estate is still a good investment channel. However, the market needs sustainable management and orientation to bring benefits to many people.

Recently, the new price level in all apartment segments, from affordable, mid-range to high-end, has been re-established in a strong upward trend.

According to the latest report by PropertyGuru Vietnam Company on the real estate market in February 2024, in Hanoi, the prices of high-end apartments (over 50 million VND/m2) and mid-range apartments (30-50 million VND/m2) continued to increase, by about 4% and 3% respectively compared to January.

According to data from the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, the average primary selling price of apartments nationwide is high, with products launched on the market priced at over VND40 million/m2. The market is completely devoid of affordable, low-cost projects priced below VND30 million/m2.

Expert Nguyen Quoc Anh said that Hanoi's urbanization rate is about 51%, meaning that Hanoi needs about 70,000 apartments each year to solve the housing problem for workers. But in reality, the supply on the market is too modest compared to demand. Mr. Quoc Anh predicted that this year, apartment prices will continue to increase.

Chau Anh

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