“We haven't won yet…”

The National Rally (RN) party of far-right politician Marine Le Pen is predicted to win a resounding victory after the first round of France's parliamentary elections on June 30, according to post-election polls.

The RN is expected to win around 34% of the vote, far ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble, which won less than 24% of the vote. Meanwhile, the left-wing NFP alliance won around 29%.

“We have not won yet, the second round will be very important. . . . We need an absolute majority so that Mr. Jordan Bardella, in eight days, can be appointed Prime Minister by Mr. Emmanuel Macron,” Ms. Le Pen said.

The final result depends on the second round of voting on July 7, in which Ms Le Pen's RN party needs 289 seats to secure an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly.

According to the expected results of the vote on June 30, the far-right party is expected to win only 230-280 seats, 8 seats short of the level needed to achieve an absolute majority, but still enough to make it difficult for the left or centrist parties to negotiate a coalition.

Far-right politician Marine Le Pen, candidate of the National Rally (RN) party, speaks after partial results from the first round of early French parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, France, June 30, 2024. Photo: NPR

The first round result is a blow to President Macron, who called for early elections after his party's disappointing performance in the European Parliament (EP) elections.

The French president is expected to remain in office regardless of the final outcome and has three years left in his term.

Turnout on June 30 was unusually high, at around 59%, 20 percentage points higher than in the 2022 vote. It remains to be seen how that will hold up in the second round, and whether Mr Macron will be able to coordinate his efforts with the left to prevent the far right from winning a majority.

The period between now and the second round of elections on July 7 will see political maneuvering from all parties, making the outcome of the upcoming election difficult to predict.

But one possible end result after the second round is a “hung parliament,” said Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, meaning Mr Macron would have to form a caretaker government with much reduced powers.

“France is now facing the prospect of a weak caretaker government ahead of new elections in 2025, which would leave France – a G7 member and permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) – virtually rudderless for a year,” said Mr. Rahman.

Minh Duc (According to National Review, GZero Media)

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/chinh-tri-gia-cuc-huu-phap-marine-le-pen-chung-ta-van-chua-thang-a670935.html