The stock market last week traded in a tug-of-war fashion, without much fluctuation, continuing to test investors' patience as expectations of a market breakout to regain the 1,300-point peak did not materialize. In addition, trading volume was below the 20-day average, demonstrating that investors' cautious sentiment still exists.
Foreign investors continued to net sell over a thousand billion VND per session during the week from June 17 to 21, with bluechip stocks being the focus of selling, especially FPT stocks accounting for 1/4 of the net selling value. If this continues, it will further affect the growth momentum of the index in the coming time.
The banking and securities stocks are disappointing as they have not yet shown their leading role. Experts predict that the divergence will continue not only at the end of the month, the third quarter and even in 2024, when this is the year of individual stock groups with impressive business results recovery. The technology and telecommunications stocks are on a good upward trend, while the chemical and steel stocks are constantly surprising investors as there are still stocks that increase strongly, bringing high profitability to investors.
Looking back at the history of the Vietnamese stock market, June has always been the month with the highest probability of correction in the year. However, if we only consider the last 10 years, the probability of an increase in points in June is higher, with the VN-Index establishing an upward trend 6 times during this period, with an average increase of 4.1%.
Concerns about a stock market correction in June still exist, as this is also the time when the market falls into an information slump, but there are still expectations that the index will continue to increase. In fact, market fluctuations often do not clearly show a cyclical rule, because it will depend on variables at different times.
According to Fiinpro data, at the end of May 2024, the P/E ratio of VN-Index was at 14.15 times, slightly lower than the 10-year average P/E of the index. Thus, the market may be in a wait-and-see situation, with positive momentum from low interest rates, exchange rate pressure may have been largely reflected, investors expect listed companies' profits to have bottomed out by the end of 2023, but the market's valuation is close to the average level of the past 10 years.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Director of DGCapital Investment - assessed that the stock market is still inclined towards positive movement, however, this period will be affected by many macro factors. The end of June will be the time to announce macroeconomic indicators, including the important index of GDP growth in the second quarter.
The market at the current stage still has a lot of room for growth, the driving force comes from the business results of listed enterprises in the second quarter of 2024. In a positive scenario, if the earnings per share (EPS) of all listed assets continues to grow strongly in the second quarter, the market valuation becomes attractive; at the same time, investors' confidence in the market's profit recovery is further consolidated, so they will accept a market valuation higher than the average of the past 10 years.
The stock market in June is also expected to move in a balanced range, especially when the index approaches the peak of March, before further information affects the main trend, Dr. Phuong commented.
Source: https://laodong.vn/tien-te-dau-tu/chung-khoan-cho-doi-yeu-to-ho-tro-de-but-pha-1356179.ldo
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