Domestic USD exchange rate suddenly increased despite the world's sharp decrease, why?

(NLDO) – The State Bank increased the USD selling price to over 26,000 VND in the context of the USD index continuously cooling down.

At the end of the week, on March 22, the central exchange rate was listed by the State Bank at 24,813 VND/USD, a record high. With a 5% margin, the current exchange rate that commercial banks are allowed to trade is from 23,572 - 26,054 VND/USD.

Notably, the State Bank continued to increase the reference USD exchange rate in both buying and selling directions, with the selling price rising to VND26,003/USD. This is the first time the management agency has raised the reference USD selling price to over VND26,000.

USD prices at commercial banks also increased. Vietcombank, BIDV, and VietinBank simultaneously raised their trading prices to 25,400 VND/USD for buying and 25,760 VND/USD for selling, up about 50 VND compared to the beginning of the week.

On the free market, the USD price at foreign exchange points in Ho Chi Minh City is 25,810 VND/USD for buying and 25,910 VND/USD for selling, an increase of about 100 VND compared to the beginning of the week.

The continuous upward movement of the USD/VND exchange rate in recent days has attracted the attention of the market, in the context of the USD cooling down in the international market. This morning, the USD index (DXY) in the international market traded at 103.7 points, the lowest level since early November last year - before the US presidential election. Compared to the peak of 109.8 points set in early January 2025, the DXY index has decreased by about 5.8%.

Speaking to a reporter from Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper this morning, Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Analysis - Individual Clients of Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, said that the State Bank's move to increase the exchange rate in recent days was mainly to proactively respond to macro fluctuations in the international market. Accordingly, the US Federal Reserve (FED) at its most recent meeting continued to keep the base interest rate unchanged. It is unclear whether this agency will adjust the interest rate at its meeting next May or not.

Domestic USD price has been continuously increasing in recent days.

"The FED forecasts that there will only be about 2 interest rate cuts this year. Inflation in the US increased again in the first 2 months of the year, making the FED hesitate to cut interest rates. This development makes the interest rate gap between VND and USD in the international market still high, creating pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate. Therefore, the State Bank may be proactively and flexibly responding, allowing the exchange rate to increase higher. From there, there is more room to operate monetary policy in the context of having to maintain low interest rates in VND to support economic growth. The exchange rate mainly increased due to international factors, while domestic foreign currency supply and demand did not fluctuate" - Mr. Nguyen The Minh analyzed.

Experts from MBS Securities Company believe that the exchange rate fluctuated strongly throughout February 2025 under pressure from many factors. Regarding external factors, although the USD weakened during the period, it is still fluctuating at a high level, so it still causes certain pressure on the exchange rate. Not to mention, the domestic demand for foreign currency increases as businesses increase the import of production materials.

In February, the State Treasury also had 3 rounds of USD purchase offers from commercial banks with a total value of up to 500 million USD, which partly tightened the foreign currency supply and put more pressure on the exchange rate.

According to Pinetree Securities Company, the State Bank has just had to increase the USD selling price to a record level of 26,003 VND/USD, showing a signal that the operator is having to intervene more strongly to reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves. In 2024, the State Bank sold billions of USD to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/ti-gia-usd-trong-nuoc-bat-ngo-tang-cao-du-the-gioi-giam-sau-vi-sao-196250322110848974.htm