The real estate market is recovering, gold prices are sky-high, deposit interest rates are slightly increasing... These investment channels can attract more capital from investors, but stocks are the channel that is considered to have the most potential when listed companies' profits recover.
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| Securities are considered the most promising investment channel today. Photo by Duc Thanh |
Idle money finds a way out
Deposit interest rates of most banks are increasing again, some even up to nearly 1%/year compared to before. As of early June 2024, the highest rate has reached over 6%/year, mainly for long-term terms, concentrated in the small private banking sector.
Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said that the reason for the increase in interest rates comes from three factors: inflation, exchange rates, and gold prices. However, the increase in deposit interest rates over the past two months has only been moderate, creating a feeling that savers are less disadvantaged, and does not imply a reversal of monetary policy.
According to Mr. Nghia, maintaining low interest rates to stabilize and restore the economy at the present time is very important. Therefore, lending interest rates will continue to be low and savings interest rates will be adjusted up slightly.
Faced with the fact that people's deposits are increasing in the banking system, credit balances at some banks are gradually becoming active again, savings interest rates are forecast to increase slightly in the coming time. Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) analyzed that the deposit interest rate level may increase by about 0.5 to 1%, but the increase in deposit interest rates will hardly create a race for deposit interest rates in the entire market.
Dr. Dinh The Hien, Director of the Institute of Informatics and Applied Economics, also said that the trend is that many banks have to increase deposit interest rates to ensure capital balance. In addition, in 2024, there are a number of factors that are also unfavorable for interest rates, including: inflation higher than in 2023, expected to be around 3.4%; high exchange rate; gold prices fluctuate and increase sharply at many times... However, according to Mr. Hien, with the State's control policy, especially not allowing banks to lend below-prime, saving costs to reduce interest rates, increasing high interest rates to mobilize capital due to difficulties in debt collection, even if interest rates increase, they will not exceed 1% compared to 2023.
Ms. Bui Thi Thao Ly, Director of Analysis at Shinhan Securities Vietnam (SSV), shared that listed profits will continue to increase thanks to the recovery of banks and real estate. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, the profits of listed companies on HOSE increased by about 11.5% compared to the same period last year and are estimated to increase by 15% for the whole year, mainly thanks to the continued growth of bank profits and the recovery of real estate in the second half of the year.
Which investment channel to choose?
According to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, a finance and banking expert, the real estate market shows signs of excitement from the second half of 2024. When the economy stabilizes, real estate and stocks recover, gold tends to decrease or go sideways. On the contrary, if economic indicators are still difficult, other investment channels are stagnant, gold prices may increase due to people's psychology towards hoarding and reserve in gold. Regarding USD, experts assess that the greenback will be in a downward trend from now until 2027, the State Bank will have many measures to stabilize the value of VND. Therefore, investing in USD is not a good choice.
The stock market is showing many positive signs, real estate is also recovering in many segments. Therefore, these two channels will be good choices for investors in the current period. 
.AFA Capital CEO Nguyen Minh Tuan affirmed that among the current investment channels, including savings, gold, stocks, real estate, investors should increase the proportion of bank deposits and continue to maintain stocks. Regarding gold, according to Mr. Tuan, if the investment ratio is increased before the gold rush occurs as recommended by AFA Capital, it is very good. However, at this point, when everyone is rushing into gold, investors must be cautious, because the world gold price is still supported, especially the possibility of the USD decreasing. However, recently, the State Bank has shown its determination and efforts to stabilize the gold market. The gold price will decrease accordingly, and the Fomo (fear of missing out) psychology in gold will decrease.
Dr. Le Xuan Nghia also said that with the investment channel starting to show signs of Fomo, investors must be cautious. Real estate, although just beginning to recover, is a very notable investment channel, because real estate is an industry that follows growth, when the economy goes up, real estate goes up and vice versa. "If you want to invest in real estate, you should buy now because the market will go up in the next 1-1.5 years," Mr. Nghia advised.
Ms. Thieu Thi Nhat Le, General Director of UOB Asset Management Vietnam (UOBAM Vietnam) commented that in the context of the real estate market starting to show signs of recovery, the recent surge in gold prices, or interest rates possibly increasing slightly in the coming time, these investment channels can attract more capital flows from investors. However, with the supporting factors from the macro economy for the growth of the stock market in the medium and long term, along with the increasing investment demand of domestic investors, the stock market continues to be an attractive channel that investors can hardly ignore.
Similarly, according to Dr. Can Van Luc, chief economist of BIDV, with a 12-month term deposit interest rate of 5-6%/year, investors are still guaranteed not to suffer too much. In addition, real estate and securities are also notable investment channels. Since the beginning of the year, the stock market has recovered and is still showing many positive signs (the average transaction value in the first 6 months of the year reached VND 24,598 billion, up 39.9% compared to the average of the previous year). Meanwhile, the real estate market has also recovered in many segments, especially industrial park real estate and apartments with suitable prices.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/chon-kenh-dau-tu-nao-hieu-qua-d220669.html
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