To compete with Mr. Trump on the way to the White House, Governor DeSantis is aiming to convince conservative voters, although this is a huge challenge.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced his presidential bid on May 24 after months of speculation. With his strong financial resources and growing national influence, he quickly emerged as a leading rival to former President Donald Trump on the Republican Party's race.
But he has a lot of work to do. A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showed Mr Trump with 49% support among Republicans, while Governor DeSantis had just 19%.
According to Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, the Republican electorate is divided into three segments, with pro-Trump conservatives making up about 30-35%, anti-Trump voters making up about 10%, and the rest being undecided moderates.
Analysts say that if DeSantis wants to defeat Mr. Trump to win the Republican nomination for the White House race, he will have to convince anti-Trump voters to support him.
But even if he succeeds in doing so, his victory is far from assured. DeSantis will have to find a way to lure conservative voters who were staunch Trump supporters away from the former president in the 2024 election.
“DeSantis can’t win the Republican nomination by simply voting for people who didn’t support Trump in the first place,” said Sarah Isgur, who has worked on the campaigns of several Republican presidential candidates. “He has to convince a lot of the MAGA world to move away from Trump.”
MAGA stands for "Make America Great Again", a movement that brings together conservatives who support Trump. This continues to be considered the largest force supporting Mr. Trump in next year's election.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaks at an event in Maryland in April. Photo: Reuters
Ayres believes that Governor DeSantis is looking to convince MAGA voters to abandon Trump, causing the former president's support base to decline significantly, rather than targeting the undecided.
The other option Ayres suggested is for DeSantis to try to convince voters looking for a fresh face in the Republican Party that he is the right man.
Chris Stirewalt, a Republican analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, agrees with this strategy, noting that Governor DeSantis needs to first build a solid base of support among voters who do not have a strong connection to former President Trump, before expanding his reach to more “difficult” voters.
“He needs a solid launch pad first,” said Stirewalt.
But DeSantis’ recent moves suggest the Florida governor appears to be choosing to appeal to the party’s most conservative voters, who are more likely to stay with former President Trump than most, despite the concerns of some potential donors and supporters.
As Florida governor, he signed one of the nation’s strictest abortion restrictions earlier this year and made it easier for people to carry guns. He also said that his support for Ukraine was not in the national interest of the United States, but later walked back those comments amid a wave of criticism.
And Governor DeSantis’ past feuds with Walt Disney, one of Florida’s largest employers, have also unsettled many traditional Republicans who favor a hands-off approach to corporate governance.
Governor DeSantis got into a heated argument with Walt Disney last year when the company criticized a Florida state bill that would ban the teaching of sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through third grade.
DeSantis later signed a law that nullified Disney's development agreements in Orlando. The company sued Florida in federal court over the move, accusing the governor of targeting them for political motives.
However, such policies would help Governor Desantis in the primaries, countering any attempt by Trump to portray him as a Republican "puppet," observers say.
In a call with donors last week, DeSantis also expressed confidence when he declared that former President Trump would have a hard time defeating Democratic President Joe Biden and that he was the only person capable of winning both the Republican primary and the general election.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos analysis of polling data shows that Governor DeSantis' core voters skew toward older, college-educated suburbanites, while former President Trump's strength comes from younger, less-educated voters.
The poll also found that the former US president holds the advantage among rural Republicans, 53% to DeSantis' 19%. But the gap narrows in the suburbs, where Trump has 44% of Republican support compared to DeSantis' 21%.
Voters who side with the Florida governor are also more likely to want the United States to continue its strong support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, to not believe the 2020 election was rigged, and to strongly oppose progressive policies like anti-discrimination laws or teaching Critical Race Theory in schools, arguing that America’s racism is systemic.
One bright spot in Governor DeSantis' path is the fact that former President Trump is embroiled in a series of legal troubles, significantly overshadowing his election prospects.
Former US President Donald Trump speaks at an event in Columbia, South Carolina, on January 28. Photo: AFP
But can DeSantis pull off his strategy? Isgur doubts it will, given the former president’s strong base. “I’m not sure it’s possible,” she said.
To further solidify his chances of winning, Governor DeSantis may need to strike backroom deals to ensure other Republican presidential candidates drop their bids and back him.
DeSantis can be confident that he has the financial wherewithal to do so. His Never Back Down political action committee has raised more than $30 million in its first month of campaigning. And DeSantis still has more than $80 million left over from his gubernatorial campaign.
The committee plans to prioritize spending money on hiring staff, knocking on doors to persuade and calling individual voters, rather than pouring all the money into advertising.
However, veteran Republican strategist Mike Murphy said money and manpower can only contribute so much and that ultimate success will depend on Governor DeSantis himself.
“Without actively campaigning and meeting voters, he will have a hard time making a broad impact,” Murphy noted.
Vu Hoang (According to Reuters, Al Jazeera, Telegraph )
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