The world geopolitical chessboard in the Trump era 2.0
Báo Dân trí•19/11/2024
(Dan Tri) - The world's geopolitical situation is expected to have significant changes after US President-elect Donald Trump takes office early next year.
The US presidential election on November 5 marked Donald Trump's return to the White House after four years. During his campaign, Trump promised to address a range of domestic issues, including immigration and inflation. He also signaled a return to his "America First" foreign policy. However, that did not stop Trump from making statements about ending the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office, bringing peace to the Middle East. Although there may be a gap between his statements and the actions he actually takes, experts warn that Trump basically says what he does. In the context of the world facing countless challenges, from climate change to wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, Trump's direction in foreign policy will have far-reaching implications. So what will the Trump administration version 2.0 mean for US foreign policy? Russia-Ukraine conflict Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President-elect Donald Trump at Trump Tower during his visit to the US in September (Photo: Getty). President-elect Donald Trump has said he would resolve the war between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours of returning to office. “If I were president, I would resolve that war in a day,” he said last year. Asked how he would do that, Trump gave few details, but said he planned to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “They both have their weaknesses and their strengths, and within 24 hours it will be resolved. It will be over quickly,” he said. A Washington Post source told the Post in April that Trump believes both Russia and Ukraine want to save face and seek a way out of a war of attrition that has drained both sides of their resources. Given the political stakes surrounding the Russia-Ukraine issue, a Ukrainian defeat would be seen as a defeat for the United States and Trump both at home and abroad. That has left Mr Trump cautious as he shapes his policy on resolving the conflict. There are few official details, but reports over the past year have offered some clues about his plans for ending it. Earlier this year, Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, two of Mr Trump’s key advisers, proposed a detailed plan to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict that included halting arms supplies to Ukraine until Kiev agreed to peace talks with Russia. Another idea put forward to Mr Trump is to demand that Kiev guarantee it will not join NATO for at least 20 years. In return, the US would continue to provide Ukraine with sufficient weapons for its future defense. Under that plan, the front line would essentially freeze in place and both sides would agree to a demilitarized zone more than 1,000km long. Last month, the Financial Times cited sources close to Mr Trump’s team as saying that he was considering a plan to freeze the war in Ukraine. Vice President-elect JD Vance has floated the idea of freezing the Russia-Ukraine conflict by creating autonomous regions on both sides of the demilitarized zone, the article said. He proposed freezing the war in place, which would allow Russia to keep about 20 percent of the territory it controls in Ukraine and force Ukraine to temporarily postpone its ambitions to join NATO. Maksym Skrypchenko, president of the Center for Transatlantic Dialogue, said Trump could pressure Ukraine with aid pledges, and Russia with tougher sanctions or increased military support for Kiev. It is unclear what strategy Trump will pursue, but he will certainly have difficulty arranging a quick and successful negotiation to end the conflict. The situation on the ground in Russia and Ukraine, and Russia's growing ties with North Korea, Iran and China, will also shape his decisions. Moreover, it would be a foreign policy disaster for the Trump administration if Ukraine were forced to sign an asymmetric deal that could have a more negative impact than President Joe Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. A banner congratulating US President-elect Donald Trump in Israel (Photo: Reuters). As with Ukraine, Trump has promised to bring peace to the Middle East, but has not said how he will do so. Most observers at least agree that his second term will be unpredictable. But Trump’s approach to the Middle East has been fundamentally tied to strong support for Israel and Saudi Arabia, along with a confrontational stance toward Iran. Trump may give Israel a green light to resolve the conflict in any way it sees fit. In a private conversation in July with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he urged Israel to end the war in Gaza quickly and insisted that it be done before he took office. Beyond his urging of the Israeli prime minister, it is unclear how Trump will manage to strongly support Israel while also trying to end the conflict. Palestinians fear that Trump will allow Israel to annex parts of the West Bank, which would mark the end of the two-state solution. During his first term, Trump considered supporting Israel’s annexation of parts of the West Bank, but also considered the creation of an independent Palestinian state, which Netanyahu strongly opposed. Trump eventually shelved the plan in 2020 as part of the so-called Abraham Accords, which led to diplomatic relations between Israel and several Gulf Arab states. With Iran, it is likely that Trump will try to return to his previous policy of imposing tighter sanctions. In September, he signaled his willingness to negotiate with Tehran to reach a new deal to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. During Trump’s first term, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei repeatedly rejected calls for direct talks with the United States. But Iran is now in a more difficult economic situation and is more vulnerable after Israel weakened Tehran’s regional proxies. However, if Trump were to pursue a “maximum pressure” strategy like his previous term, it would increase the risk of conflict in the region. In addition, his declaration of a desire to end the conflict in Gaza would allow Trump to use his close relationship with Saudi Arabia to push for a normalization agreement between Israel and Muslim countries. However, the Saudis have stressed that this will not happen until the issue of a Palestinian state is resolved. China prepares for an unpredictable Trump term While Ukraine and the Middle East are two hot spots that could see changes in US policy in the coming time, US policy towards China in Trump’s second term is not expected to change much. With relations with China being a strategic foreign policy challenge, the Biden administration has continued many policies from Trump’s first term. Therefore, when returning to the White House, Trump is believed to continue to strengthen those policies. Still, with Trump’s unpredictable style, nothing is certain. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s team appears to have been preparing for a Trump victory for months, watching the race for the White House with trepidation. For those whose lives or jobs are more closely tied to the United States, a second Trump term would seem far more interesting. Trump’s “America First” approach could benefit China on issues like Taiwan. But his unpredictability has so far unsettled Chinese officials. Some worry about the disruption or even the complete halt of the recently resumed U.S.-China talks and the consequences for both sides and the world. Trump’s campaign rhetoric on tariffs and immigration has rattled Chinese exporters and students studying abroad. For years, the United States and China have been locked in a geopolitical rivalry as the world's two largest superpowers. The two countries have clashed over a range of issues, including trade, Taiwan and influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The International Crisis Group (ICG) said Trump's approach to China has been largely about trade, as he has placed the United States' economic relationship with China above other issues. Washington launched a trade war with Beijing in 2018, when the Trump administration imposed tariffs on more than $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. That prompted retaliatory measures from China. During his election campaign, Trump vowed to impose a 10% tariff on all imports, but could raise the tariff rate to 60% on Chinese goods. Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Trump had taken a "more assertive" stance toward Beijing during the campaign. "We really don't know what's going to happen now," Kurlantzick said. On the security front, Trump's approach is expected to differ from his predecessor's in building stronger US security partnerships with other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. With Taiwan, Trump also expressed his view that the island's government should pay for US protection. China considers Taiwan an inseparable part of its territory and a "red line" in its relationship with the US. Although there is no official relationship, the US still sells weapons and equipment to Taiwan despite Beijing's criticism. Hotspots of the Korean Peninsula A joint US-South Korea military exercise in September (Photo: USNI). On the Korean Peninsula, the question is whether President-elect Trump will reduce the number of US troops stationed in South Korea or demand that the ally pay more for its security. The US currently has about 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea. Mr. Trump has publicly warned that he would consider reducing the size of this force. In an interview with Bloomberg last month, Mr. Trump said that if he serves a second term, the US would force South Korea to pay $10 billion for the garrison. South Korea currently pays more than $1 billion a year for the presence of US troops on its territory. That figure is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 billion by 2026. The US military presence on the Korean Peninsula serves as a counterweight to the militaries of North Korea and China. The US and South Korea regularly conduct joint military exercises. One question is whether Mr. Trump’s return will reduce the scale and frequency of those exercises. The Biden administration has signed new security cooperation agreements with South Korea and Japan. However, the fate of this agreement is uncertain when Mr. Trump returns to the White House. With North Korea, Mr. Trump is expected to push for another summit with leader Kim Jong-un after three meetings in his first term. However, observers say that Pyongyang now has less reason to negotiate with Washington in the context of North Korea's strengthening relations with Russia. European allies America's alliances could fall into new tensions and cracks if Donald Trump raises trade tariffs on European allies, as he said during his presidential campaign. He often complains that countries like Germany, which have huge trade surpluses with the United States, are taking advantage of US military protection. Mr. Trump hopes NATO members will meet or exceed the goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense, something he has repeatedly called for even in his first term. "I don't think Trump has any intention of breaking up alliances, but he doesn't really care about them," said Jeremy Shapiro, director of the US program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Preparing for a new relationship with the US, French President Emmanuel Macron said: "Donald Trump was elected by the American people, and he will defend American interests, which is a legitimate and good thing. The question is whether we are ready to defend European interests. That is the only question." In his first term, the Trump administration initially struggled to convince Europeans to replace equipment from Chinese telecommunications providers like Huawei, over concerns about their spying capabilities. His trade war against Europe has made some leaders wary of working with Washington. If the new Trump administration makes concessions to Russia, European governments will feel their security is threatened. From there, US allies may look to improve relations with China, even if it risks fracturing their ties with Washington. Analysts expect Mr Trump to rethink the US presence in Europe more broadly. Victoria Coates, a former senior official on Mr Trump’s National Security Council, believes a second term would end the era in which the US was seen as the security guarantor of the West. Africa and Latin America Many experts believe Mr Trump’s foreign policy will prioritize trade ties. With Africa, Mr Trump’s focus may be limited to how Africa fits into his broader geopolitical goals, especially in terms of competition with China. Mr Trump’s return to power puts the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in jeopardy as the deal expires next year. Trump has not prioritized multilateral agreements, so experts fear he could use AGOA as leverage to negotiate more favorable bilateral deals, putting the existing framework at risk. Moreover, Trump’s climate skepticism also poses a major concern for the continent. The US withdrawal from climate agreements would amplify Africa’s climate vulnerability. Meanwhile, Latin America could be central to Trump’s presidency, as it is home to major policy issues such as immigration and drugs. Three pillars of US-Latin American relations are hanging in the balance: migration, energy and trade. Trump’s approach to diplomacy could reshape regional dynamics in unexpected ways. He often prioritizes personal relationships and ideology, and uses trade tariffs to extract economic and political concessions. Mexico could be hit hard over the next four years as its exports are likely to be hit by Trump’s tariffs. Trump’s pledge to deport millions of undocumented migrants, if enacted, would also have repercussions across the region, where many countries rely on remittances from the United States to fuel their economies.
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