Saudi Arabia wants 'security umbrella' while Democrats are in power in the US

The Biden administration wants a deal, and Saudi Arabia wants the same thing while the Democrats are still in power.

However, many obstacles remain, including the Israeli Prime Minister's stance on Palestinian statehood. The clock is ticking, and there is not much time left to reach this important agreement.

US officials hope that linking defense guarantees to normalization can gain support from the US Congress, but timing is crucial, as the upcoming US presidential election will add uncertainty to the situation.

Tough deal…

Saudi Arabia is reportedly willing to accept a political commitment from Israel to establish a Palestinian state, rather than a more binding deal to normalize relations with the Jewish state, Reuters reported earlier this month, citing sources familiar with the matter.

According to Reuters, Riyadh is seeking a defense pact with the United States, and this approach is seen as a way to break the deadlock, four months since efforts to normalize Saudi-Israeli relations were stalled by a wave of violent conflicts in the Gaza Strip last October.

Seeing the US presidential election approaching with unpredictable changes in the times, Saudi Arabia wants to be sheltered under Washington's "security umbrella" so that the kingdom can confidently carry out its ambitious plan to reduce the economy's dependence on the Petrodollar and attract huge foreign investment flows, Reuters sources said.

World - Saudi Arabia wants a — A view of the ruins in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, following Israeli airstrikes, October 26, 2023. Photo: NY Times

Riyadh's diplomatic efforts come amid growing concerns about the military influence of Iran, which has proxy forces in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.

To give talks on recognizing Israel and putting a security pact with the United States back on track, Saudi officials have told their U.S. counterparts that Riyadh will not demand that Israel take concrete steps toward establishing a Palestinian state, but will instead accept a political commitment to a two-state solution, two senior regional sources told Reuters.

However, Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Center in Jeddah, who is familiar with the ongoing discussions, said Riyadh and other Arab diplomats also understand that without serious and concrete US pressure on Israel, Palestinian statehood will never be possible.

…But worth a try

Such a grand regional deal – widely seen as unlikely, but worth a shot even before the Israel-Hamas war flared up again – would still face many political and diplomatic obstacles, not least the uncertainty over how the conflict in Gaza would develop.

A pact that gives the world’s largest oil exporter U.S. military protection in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel would reshape the Middle East by reconciling two longtime enemies and binding Riyadh to Washington at a time when China is increasingly seeking to expand its influence in the region.

A normalization deal would also strengthen Israel's defenses against arch-rival Iran and give US President Joe Biden a diplomatic victory to win over voters ahead of the November 5 presidential election.

Saudi officials have privately urged Washington to pressure Israel to end hostilities in the Gaza Strip and commit to a “political horizon” for a Palestinian state, saying Riyadh would then normalize relations and help fund Gaza’s reconstruction, one of the regional sources said.

“The message from the leading Arab kingdom to the United States is: First stop the war, allow humanitarian aid and commit to a just and lasting solution that gives the Palestinians a state,” al-Sagher told Reuters. “Without this, Saudi Arabia cannot do anything.”

The problem, however, is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has spent much of his political career opposing a Palestinian state, has flatly rejected any American and Arab aspirations for a Palestinian state after the smoke in Gaza subsides.

“Normalization really requires – if not legally, then at least politically – a commitment from the Israelis that they are ready to accept a two-state solution,” one of the senior sources in the region told Reuters. “If Israel stops its military offensive in Gaza – or at least declares a ceasefire – that would make it easier for Saudi Arabia to move forward with the deal.”

The Saudi Arabian government media office did not respond to a Reuters request for comment .

Minh Duc (According to Reuters, Fox News)

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