The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) has just released a forecast on shrimp exports and prospects from Vietnam's major shrimp import markets in 2024.
Shrimp exports in 2023 expected to reach 3.4 billion USD
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| VASEP forecasts that shrimp export turnover in 2024 will reach about 4 billion USD, an increase of 5% compared to 2023. |
Accordingly, VASEP believes that the recovery momentum for shrimp exports will still face many challenges in 2024, which requires businesses in the Vietnamese shrimp industry to make more efforts to continue to overcome difficulties on the recovery path.
Vietnam’s shrimp export output is forecast to recover and increase slightly this year. Demand is forecast to recover in the last 6 months of the year, when inflationary pressures cool down and inventories at importers decrease. This is an opportunity for shrimp prices to increase again.
In the US market, after a continuous decline in the first months of the year, from July to the end of 2023, shrimp exports to the US recorded double-digit growth. As a result, in 2023, shrimp exports to the US reached 682 million USD, down 15% compared to 2022.
Among the major markets importing Vietnamese shrimp, the EU will see the sharpest decline with a 39% decrease in 2023, reaching 421 million USD. Vietnam's competitors in the EU market include Ecuador and India. In this market, Vietnamese shrimp still maintains its advantage in the high-end segment.
However, the competitiveness of competitors is also getting stronger. But what worries the seafood industry is that economic and political instability still exists, so the EU market will not be able to recover for most of 2024. Demand is expected to remain stable.
It was not until the last month of 2023 that shrimp exports to the Japanese market recorded an increase of 6% compared to the same period in 2022. Last year's shrimp exports to this market reached 511 million USD, down 24% compared to 2022.
But according to VASEP, this market is assessed to have a lot of potential and will recover sooner than other major markets such as the US and EU in 2024. Because in the US and EU, simple processed shrimp from India and Ecuador with cheap prices is having an advantage over Vietnam.
Japanese consumers require products to be delicious, nutritious, beautiful, and meticulously processed, suitable for Vietnam's processing level and capacity. Popular shrimp products exported from Vietnam to Japan include breaded shrimp, stretched shrimp, fried shrimp, sushi shrimp, etc. Vietnamese shrimp still maintains a good competitive advantage in this market. In addition, the Japanese market is geographically closer than the US and EU, and payment methods are also safer.
Shrimp exports to China are also in the general downward trend, but this market has the lowest decline among the major import markets. In 2023, Vietnam's shrimp exports to China reached 607 million USD, down 8% compared to 2022.
According to VASEP, China's demand for shrimp imports is still increasing strongly, but because there are too many sources of supply in this market, it is very difficult for Vietnamese shrimp to compete on price.
VASEP forecasts that shrimp export turnover in 2024 will reach about 4 billion USD, an increase of 5% compared to 2023.
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